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Id say you’re overthinking it
Absolutely, but 22cm of seatpost on a 46cm seat tube and a top tube that slopes well under the height of the back wheel is going to take some effort to get over. Still, i think i'll borrow a long seatpost and give it a go as i've never ridden a carbon road bike or one with hydro discs.
Id say you’re overthinking it but you might actually want a shorter reach anyway and therefore not need as long a stem as you think.
Plus dunno what width bars you ride on your caad but you could go 2cm wider bars for off-road which could warrant a 1cm shorter reach too anyway.