Russian invasion of Ukraine

One reading of the residents of Rostov on Don greeting Wagner like rock stars is that the population will now bend the knee to anyone that comes through with guns and cool kit they are now so cowed by decades of Putin.

^
https://archive.ph/bIapW

Very interesting read and it partly explains the peculiar Russian mentality.

They've got this interesting mix of imperialist "i'm greater than you" attitude and then there's absolute lack of collective responsibility because it is daddy Putin doing these things and not us.

residents of Rostov on Don greeting Wagner like rock stars

But I've also seen videos of Rostov residents walking/cycling up to the Wagnerites and having a go at them. Those videos were mostly shot in day time. The videos with a cheering crowd were shot in the evening and the crowd looks more homogeneous, young and male. At a quick glance anyway. Could they represent a smaller core of right wing kids who follow Wagner in various telegram channels? My understanding is that the scum to the right of Putin have been able to stick their neck out from time to time without significant repercussions.

The right wing of all flavours knows who they want on their side

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that's what i though - could have been <1% of the city's population there in support, and even if the other 99% were opposed to Wagner - they're hardly going to come out and protest in this scenario.

Interesting. Especially the republishing and popularity of old texts.

This is a level headed view, I think:

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/that-was-the-coup-that-was?

The FA article is a good read but do bear in mind the writer is a fellow at a 'independent' thinktank. His brother coincidentally was the whistleblower who leaked the Putin's Palace stuff.

This also from him a couple of weeks ago:
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89962

I am thinking of the time, a decade ago, when Putin was booed when he went onstage at an MMA event in Moscow. At the time we so wanted it to be a bunch of liberal hipster kids, and the beginnings of a democracy movement.
It came out a few days later that the hecklers had been a cluster of far right extremists who think Putin is a softie. I am not trying to make the 'Putin as the lesser evil' argument here, it's just that one should be careful to project anything positive into such a thoroughly depressing state of affairs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nS48UuVXbjQ

Telegraph was quoting a UK security service source as saying Prigohzin was encouraged to back down or his entire family would be wiped out. Quite a compelling argument and very on brand for a mafia state.

So we now back to Prigozhin does face criminal charges and wagner fighters either sign up with the MoD or are exiled to Belarus

How do we know who to believe or whether these statements count for anything at all? They're just words. The fighters haven't been disarmed, and nobody's going to want that job. Joining the army would be a death sentence for them. Prigozhin presumably has stacks of money. All bets are off, unless Putin can find a way to kill him.

To illustrate how little the western press really know, look at what has been described in the BBC and elsewhere as Prigozhin's final comment on the day of the mutiny: "We've had an OK result today. Cheered everybody up." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66023631 The uncredited source of this was an amateur journalist/useful idiot called Patrick Lancaster, an American who wanders around behind Russian lines doing his own thing, which is mostly looking terrified while presenting the Russian point of view. He actually went to Rostov and spoke to Prigozhin. 'Interview' at 3:06 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA

Progozhin says 30 of his mercenaries were killed on Saturday 😀

christ alive, makes me sick. over half a million subscribers too, grim.

For sure. Ruzzia has its own version of Fox News, but it is on four channels at the same time. Still by heart russians are so accustomed to taking things with a grain of salt that it will be difficult to brush this off as nothing. So what they do is make it a spectacle and praise the heroes instead to spin the failure as a great success. The crazy thing is people accept it even though they know there is something fishy.

Lol, Shoigu getting a medal for suppressing the uprising
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673635707607453696?t=k0Q7lDGdAjOAkCRma-UUhA&s=19

Prigozhin and the other Russians don't look very bothered about being asked questions by an American who's not wearing a press badge. I wonder if they all know who he is? His wiki page suggests they might. It also says he keeps screwing up by filming evidence of Russian war crimes. No wonder he looks so scared. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Lancaster I wonder what the FSB thinks of him.

More here https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxneb4/ukraine-patrick-lancaster-journalist

His wedding video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsEsHnnvIME

Not really Ukraine related but lol. Every answer is so vague, definitely a sign of true freedom of speech and democracy.

https://youtu.be/sg6Kd-cOXSU

.

Moscow Times says General Surovikin has been arrested https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/06/28/istochniki-v-minoboroni-soobschayut-ob-areste-generala-surovikina-a47384

The Guardian says he's missing. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/28/russian-general-wagner-mutiny-goes-missing

Russian govt going old school soviet on Prigozhin, saying they’ll never mention him by name again. Next step is erasing his name and likeness from all documentation, and punishing people for mentioning him.

Here’s an interesting article on the historical practice https://www.history.com/news/josef-stalin-great-purge-photo-retouching

Haven't got a source in English, but just read a very sensible explanation for the decision to make Wagner soldiers sign direct contracts with the Russian army.
When Wagner was founded much of the appeal was to have plausible deniability, Russia denied their existence for almost a decade. But with the offensive in 2022 their existence slipped out of the closet and eventually Wagner became a trademarked brand with fancy head quarters and so on. Some in the RA hierarchy no longer saw any point in paying the premium for mercenaries, now that they no longer were of the secret and clandestine kind, so the decision was made to take the out sourced operation in-house so to speak. Prigozhin stood to loose a huge chunk of his business empire and made up a cause on the spot and marched for Moscow. All very pragmatic and not a 4D chess move in sight.