Russian invasion of Ukraine

Something's cooking. Some odd footage floating about (looks staged but who knows what that means any more).

Wagner telegram channels say they've been attacked by Russian army (helicopters, multiple locations, miles from the front) and telling people to stay calm while they retaliate. This a couple of hours after a tirade from Prigozhin blaming Shoigu for starting the war (giving Putin a public 'out').

Peskov;

"Putin is aware of the situation unfolding around Prigozhin, all necessary measures are being taken"

Twitter is fucking mental tonight

Prizhogin says Shoigu is personally commanding the attack on Wagner

Mental note: Watch out for random Scots joining an escalating conflict, their presence means it’s serious.

Any channel you’d suggest?

Sounds like it's popping right out
https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672326281977888774?t=_s-d0hFnfvd5kBOPo0wfng&s=19

Try this list
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1174203958044348418?t=5IrylpyqBO8-RcDkCe5IXA&s=09

The FSB has "legally and reasonably" initiated a criminal case against Prigozhin on the fact of "organizing an armed rebellion", Russia's Prosecutor General's Office says - TASS

'Fortress plan' roadblocks on the M4 to Moscow from rostov-on-don:
https://www.bbc.com/russian/live/news-65849028

You'd think Prizhogin is toast now, state media broadcasting he's basically enemy of the state, pretty tough place to row back from

This suggests Wagner soldiers knew in advance https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672338798691115009 If this was preplanned maybe some regular army people are in on it. And it ever so conveniently coincides with the Ukraine army push about to move into a higher gear.

Plane used by Lukashenko (possibly not exclusively) left Minsk not long ago, to an undeclared destination. https://www.radarbox.com/data/flights/B28703

Cheers 👍

You'd think Prizhogin is toast now, state media broadcasting he's basically enemy of the state

He has been careful not to speak out against Putin. He says the lie behind the invasion of Ukraine was concocted by the military leaders, who misled Putin. He's been very critical of parts of the Russian state for a long time now, in a way that would have sent anybody else to prison or out a window; a lot of people say he could only get away with that if he had Putin's blessing, that Putin uses him to keep the generals cowed.

So has Prigozhin let his favoured status go to his head and stepped over the line? Or is he still taking Putin's orders? Prigozhin says he has sent his forces back into Russia but there's no evidence of that yet.

If this is all a show for effect, what would Putin gain from it? Letting Prigozhin say "the invasion is a lie" seems a big risk to take. Is this setting up a story that lets Putin stop the war but blame the military? Or to give him a reason for putting the whole country under martial law?

Or maybe it's just what it looks like.

So Wagner has left Ukraine and occupied Rostov but nobody is fighting them. Except for one helicopter which they shot down. Putin's not said anything. Nobody knows how much of the regular army may or may not be in sympathy with Wagner. https://twitter.com/i/lists/1174203958044348418

Army might not be in sympathy.
They just hate Wagner more than they hate Putin and his FSB.

They may refuse to fight Wagner though.

Paul Mason's take on this is quite something https://paulmasonnews.medium.com/the-kayfabe-coup-is-under-way-353f5dc4d9c0

It's wonderful news that Prigozhin feels that sending his fighters into Russia, and confronting the Russian army head on, is a safer bet than staying on the front in Ukraine. He may be rightly pissed off with Shoigu, but my guess is that if Prigozhin felt that he had any reasonable chance at achieving something in Ukraine, he would swallowed his anger and stuck to that. Putin would have given him an astronomical reward for capturing Izyium or whatever, so now we can assume he has concluded that a major breakthrough in Ukraine won't happen in his lifetime.

Stolen from twitter:

Likewise

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Wagner coffee break at the former McDonald's in Rostov

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Putin not mentioning Prigohzin by name in address to the nation and Prigohzin not mentioning Putin either.

Not sure mentioning 1917 was wise.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672508593969549312?t=fS7XMriTIJK4SogXo6swlQ&s=19