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Basically: are you fat? :P
You've probably nailed it. I'm 5kg up on what I'd normally be (used to be) this time of year, so 74-75 rather than 69-70, so that's got to be a factor.
I got some smart scales last year and they say I should be 63kg, which I haven't been since I was 14, but it would no doubt help arsewise to get down to the right side of 70.
I can't imagine what it must be like to have an extra 15-20 kg going through the same bits of skin :o
I'm probably 5kg heavier than TCR years these days so that's possibly a contributing factor too. That and spending more time in pubs than on bikes these days.
Basically: are you fat? :P