You are reading a single comment by @Howard and its replies. Click here to read the full conversation.
  • For (a paywalled) example: Britain's inflation pain is mostly self-inflicted and getting worse:

    Britain is an outlier, and not in a good way. Core inflation both in America and the euro zone, though still high, has been ticking down gently ...

    Among the G7 countries, none has higher inflation than Britain. Only Italy comes close, with a headline rate of 7.6%. Even its trend, unlike in Britain, is firmly downwards.

    ... it is clear inflationary pressures are overwhelmingly the result of decisions taken at home.

    Old excuses that it is imported, because of war, snarled-up supply chains or high global food prices, no longer wash. The rate of services inflation, overwhelmingly a domestic factor, rose in May to an annual rate of 7.4% from 6.9% previously.

    Britain stands out for the stimulus it gave to the economy in the pandemic and then, last year, during the energy crisis. ... Only America doled out a bigger stimulus. Britain heavily outspent other peers: around 23.1% of national income, vastly more, for example, than the 13.3% in France.

    Those setting monetary policy are also to blame. In hindsight, they were too cautious. ...

    Easy policy combines with a weaker supply side. Again, Britain stands aside from its peers (again, in a bad way). Labour-force participation remains below its pre-pandemic level. One portion of missing workers are those—perhaps half a million more than before—too sick or tired to seek work. EU workers are also missing. And whereas, post Brexit, non-EU migrants have poured in, many are refugees or students, not full-time workers.

    So roughly, the US has had equally cheap money and a larger COVID stimulus, but they haven't simultaneously cut off their main source of economic migration. Also their mortgage and housing markets are explicitly backstopped by their government, resulting in generally cheaper mortgages, with long fixed terms, which are much easier to get out of.

  • The US also wasn’t / isn’t importing gas from Eastern Europe, but yea they will be hit by price rises in energy too.

    Fwiw Reuters seemed to think that labour shortages in the U.K. were due to early retirement (and they can afford to retire because of cheap money) and workforce sickness, again sustainable because it’s affordable due to cheap money.

    Net immigration to the U.K. is higher than it ever has been, I guess it’s just hard for folks to work - both motivation and deliberate blockers due to migration policy.

About

Avatar for Howard @Howard started