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the rain gulley above that room was completely fucked. roofers fixed gutter and the roof and sealed it all up last week.
just took down the dining room tiles and it looks like it was already overboarded which was a little worrying as I wasn't sure how I'd proceed with that but they used the shit adhesive in there and the ceiling is flat so I was able to get the adhesive off clean with a 5 in 1 painters tool so I'll be able to knock it flat with a few hours of scraping I reckon.
HatBeard
I'd be tempted to remove the black bits and see what is above to eliminate any potential sources of damp or see if it's historical, or a ventilation problem / cold bridging.
You're putting up plasterboard in any case, so an extra bit is not much more work.
Paint can mitigate the symptoms, but if the cause is still there, it will come back eventually.