Russian invasion of Ukraine

The Ruzzian leadership have a history of being unswayed by concerns for innocent life. If blowing the dam is calculated to help them more than hinder them in their objectives, you can bet they’ll do it.

Flooding the area makes an attack by Ukraine more complicated, and it might even scrap an attack plan altogether. It denies attacking forces stable ground, slows them down, destroys infrastructure, creates health and security risks for attackers, and creates groups of displaced and needy people that Ukraine will need to divert resources to help (unlike the Russian authorities that are reported to be doing very little at all).

There’s absolutely tons of reasons why Ruzzia would do it. There’s far fewer reasons why Ukraine would. Ruzzia was in control of the dam, and they’ve given no evidence of a Ukrainian attack or infiltration. It’s possible it was either of them or neither of them, but right now it’s walking and quacking like a duck.