Russian invasion of Ukraine

Did not see Gerasimov getting pitched as potential kingmaker coming

From the Guardian live text which I can never think out how to link to:

Former Chief of the General Staff Gen Lord Richard Dannatt has been speaking to Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday about Ukraine this morning.

I’d like to think that if the counter-offensive by the Ukrainians is sufficiently well planned, supported and executed, that Putin won’t be in a position to do too much decision making himself that if his army crumbles and runs, that I think there’s quite likely that he’ll be swept out of the Kremlin as well.”

He added:

And you’ll also have to ask the question, which everybody does, is, well if it’s not going to be Putin and the Kremlin, who is it going to be? Well, to be honest, I don’t really know the answer to that question. But what I would say is, I think the group of people, the group of leaders, who are most disaffected in Russia at the present moment, are the senior generals.

They’ve seen Putin totally interfere with a war they probably don’t largely agree with. They realise that their weaponry is distinctly inferior to that of the West. And that’s largely throught corruption in the Russian defence procurement process. So I could see said General Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff, who’s now been put in charge and overall command in in Ukraine itself to be the one, if he could make a sufficiently sensible plan and have the moral courage to see it through, it could be the generals that topple Putin and push him out of the Kremlin.

There’s going to be a lot of change in Russia over the next 12 months. I’ve got no doubt.”