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the Russian populace believing that they have anything we want on their land
The irony is that their natural resources are cheaper to us when they are in Russian hands and therefore extracted by workers earning appallingly low Russian wages. Compared to what it would cost us if the EU invaded and annexed them somehow and ended up having to pay Russian miners and oil field workers the going rate over here.
There's a chapter on that in Prisoners of Geography (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoners_of_Geography)
The whole thing relies on the Russian populace believing that they have anything we want on their land and that the west hasn't learned that land invasions of Russia are stupid.