Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia seem to have launched something, somewhere so Biden gets the optics of strolling round Kyiv in his Ray Bans with an air raid siren going off looking badass.

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Prigozhin is openly complaining about lack of ammo.

Isn't that the problem on both sides? The NATO countries are not set up for a WW1 style war.
If they would fight this war themselves they would first get air superiority and then bomb
anything russian from a long distance. The only thing preventing this are russian
nukes.

Yeah, but Prigozhin openly complaining is still a big deal I think. He has gone from man of the moment to crybaby in a couple weeks. Definitely pushing for a confrontation of some sort. Difficult for us to understand exactly how that might play out, but it's not nothing.

Well he's gonna moan as he and Surovkin were clearly sidelined and out of favour when Gerasimov was re-promoted, his grumbling is not lack of ammo but lack of ammo to wagner

The US are claiming China is about to start supplying arms but not sure if that's just politics after the balloon and to side line thier proposed peace deal, same with the claim Ukraine is weeks away from running out of ammo, is it really or is it politics and people playing for favour and contracts

Tricky times.

NATO is feeling the strain of Ukraine’s need for materiel and resources, and manufacturing capacity isn’t scaling proportionally. Their apparent strategy of matching Russia shell for shell burned through a lot of stock and reserves quickly.

The US is stretched maintaining credible capability in Europe, the Middle East, South Korea/Japan, and the South Pacific/Guam/Taiwan.

China is helping Putin bypass sanctions, and possibly acquire weapons (if Wagner is firing North Korean missiles like the US claims, their overlord and protector China had to have authorised the deal).

Iran is supplying Russia with weapons, North Korea is lobbing ICBMs into the Pacific, MBS doesn’t get along with Biden, North and Central Africa are seeing more and more Wagnerites and massive Chinese investment…

If one were to war-game how to outplay the US and NATO, that’s not a bad place to start from.

Prigozhin is openly complaining about lack of ammo.

Isn't that the problem on both sides?

Prigozhin is claiming that Russian ammo production is now exceeding demand but none of it is making its way to Wagner
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1627623132528779264

Gotta wonder how many people are falling out of windows that we don’t even hear about. I think we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg here and that Putin is working very hard to suppress any news of dissent.

I don't think there is much chance Ruzzia would really attack when Biden is there

They wouldn't no because they were told - this was mentioned on BBC R4 news (I think WatO or PM) and they said it was interesting as it showed that there are still some behind the scenes channels of communication open between the US and Russia.

Not sure they would have needed telling mind when you can track Air Force 1 using freely available flight tracking sites.

Even Putin doesn't want to accidentally kill Biden in a missile strike.

He didn't fly in, he took a train from Poland.

The US probably used multiple channels all at once. It was still risky, Ruzzia didn’t have clear comms. And full control of its frontline troops at the best of times, although they probably have better control over their artillery and missile batteries.

it was interesting as it showed that there are still some behind the scenes channels of communication open between the US and Russia.

All the embassies are still open with ambassadors still in DC and Moscow doing their jobs, all lines of comms are open as normal. It's easy to assume that things are worse than they are in reality.

We would indeed be in very serious shit if all the embassies were closed and staff evacuated.

It's easy to assume that things are worse than they are in reality

You mean, diplomacy wise? Because on the front line it's pretty fucked up with hundreds of soldiers dying every day on both sides.

You mean, diplomacy wise?

Obviously - diplomacy is the main thing that happens in embassies.

Now whether that information gets to the frontline and how it is dealt with is the issue. We are dealing with the people that shot down MH17. Diplomats can not guarantee anything.

This made my day, ruzzian tanks in front of ruzzian embassies in Latvia, Estonia and Berlin

https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-court-allows-placing-wrecked-russian-tank-outside-embassy/a-63408590

One year later. Think it’ll be another year?

Wondered why my flight tracker wasn't picking it up ;)

All the embassies are still open with ambassadors still in DC and Moscow doing their jobs, all lines of comms are open as normal. It's easy to assume that things are worse than they are in reality.

This was the Beeb's diplomatic correspondent or similar expert talking and he was surprised, so I don't think this was some diplomatic armchair assumption.

We are dealing with the people that shot down MH17. Diplomats can not guarantee anything.

I did some filming with a Malaysian diplomat last Friday. Had no idea that Malaysia has a neutral stance on the war and everything to do with it, despite MH17.

She reckons it's more of an Asian way of thinking - shit happened, you can't change it and retaliation wouldn't fix it so it's better to be pragmatic.

I find that quite mind boggling - imagine if that had been a US plane.

Hopefully not, the war is rapidly becoming a lever on Putin’s seat in the big chair, the only thing that can keep him there is victory (never going to happen) or a successful ‘de-nazification' and exit from Ukraine while thanking the brave sons of Russia who have yet again made history and saved Europe.

If more people have balcony/window accidents higher up then he too might find himself threatened from within.

either way he loses.

The US 2024 Presidential election looms large. Republicans are much more amenable to Putin, presumably because he won them the 2016 election, and should they win then the supply of ammunition and weapons will end very quickly.

I'm sure the Ukrainian government is well aware of this, so imagine they'd like to get in a position this year where a Russian strategic withdrawal is Putin's only option.

imagine if that had been a US plane.

The US have prior for shooting down airliners too though. Funnily enough though, none of the crew of the USS Vincennes were tried for their part in the murder of 290 people. I guess the only difference is that the US never denied shooting it down, only argued (unconvincingly) about the reason it was reasonable.

I think the challenge there is convincing the majority of propaganda-drenched Russians that we (the west) do not pose an existential threat to Russia. It's so obvious to us, but so many of them are utterly brainwashed.

Most victims in MH17 were from Netherlands (193). Of course 43 malaysians and 12 indonesians is still a lot, but what are you going to do. There is no international law for those that just choose not to abide by it. Ruzzian terrorists could hijack a british plane and get a way with it when just Putler waves his nuke card.

If you watch 1420 on Youtube you can see the problem is not even that they really believe all the crap they have been spewed. The problem is that they are willing to keep supporting "Homeland" no matter what. You hear it all over again from the older people. Just chanting "We are strong, we can not be defeated" is easier intellectually than accepting the Ruzzian state is vulnerable. I just saw recently a great clip from before the collapse in 90s. The RT today has exact same arguments.