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while there are still extensive waitlists
This is the question for me. How many people on those waitlists will drop off if they can’t see a profit or at least their money back?
I’m sure you’re right about the sports models holding up better. People were asking towards £9k for Air Kings last year when no one could get anything, they’ll settle back to well below retail once people can get the watch they actually want again.
Hefty
Unlikely, because new prices have gone up so much. They'll probably settle around whatever the equivalent new RRP is, maybe a bit less depending on condition, but while there are still extensive waitlists I expect they will hold fairly firm.
I think stuff that isn't one of the most desirable sports models - so anything that isn't a Sub, GMT, or Daytona - will fall more, relatively.
(Also the rarer vintage stuff is a different matter.)