Russian invasion of Ukraine

Perfect. Shell shocked ex convicts with a get out of jail card, just what a society needs

Well, that's a grim read but on the other hand I couldn't care less about their social problems. But the prospect once those convicts get back seem horrendous af.

Many fear that those being released could now seek to settle scores at
home.

In 2014, Kirill Neglin of Segezha was sentenced to 12 years in prison
on counts of drug dealing and domestic abuse. After a bout of heavy
drinking, he repeatedly hit and kicked his wife, terrorising her both
at home and then following her to their dacha, where she said she
silently endured another attack because she feared for their
children’s lives.

After she testified against him, Neglin issued a threat in court. “She
won’t live long,” he said, according to a court transcript first
reported by the independent news outlet Verstka. “Whatever sentence
the court gives [me], that’s how long she has left to live.”

I guess there's a good outcome if he wanders into the first passing Ukrainian bullet without getting his rifle unpacked.

Couple of insightful thoughts in this piece on normal Russian's view of the war, government and impact of sanctions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/12/bbc-steve-rosenberg-russia-editor-ukraine-war-piano-gorbachev-eurovision

Looks like my post/link above was already slightly outdated when I posted it. In a recent vid Denis Davydov claims that Wagner is no longer permitted to recruit prisoners. Davydov speculates that this was more to curb Prigozhin's success rather than any concerns about Russian civilian life.

BBC quoting Ukraine govt saying that 824 Russians dying a day this month. I imagine this is inflated, but that is a shocking death rate. If you were to expand it out to include injured, sick, deserted etc, it surely is not sustainable for long. How bad must the russian army's leadership structure be...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64616099

They send the untrained conscripts first towards the Ukrainian positions forcing them to open fire and so revealing their location so they better trained mercenaries know where to attack.
This is probably what causes the high death rate but it doesn't impact the proper army that much because they were useless anyway. It just bleeds out the Ukrainians slowly.

Ukraine is also suffering a high attrition rate although not as large as Russia but Russia has a much larger pool of manpower to draw on so can still land up being able to sustain it longer

https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-travel-february-12-2023/
Sounds like Ruzzia is about to fall apart. Will they run out of money or is somebody going to attempt a coup? Ruzzian TV pundits have been toying with the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons lately so it might be time for a final showdown.

For me it looks like a preventive measure of something happening similar to Brittney Griner or Paul Whelan - guilty or not, it seems there is a risk of Russia snatching somebody with US citizenship to get some sort of leverage.

Read a swedish article this weekend. Pretty grim reading.

Wave 1 - conscripts fully loaded with ammo but hardly any weapons
wave 2, 3, 4 - more conscripts, but with the purpose to move the ammo a bit further
wave 5 - trained soldiers with good kit, picking up the ammo that is now hopefully in a better place

Looks like NATO is low on ammo while Russia makes even stronger push these days. I wonder how much do they have left. On the other hand it looks like they could send their conscripts armed with kitchen knives and shovels and still push forward.

Currently, the US produces just over 14,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition
every month. As The Washington Post reported last month, Ukrainian
forces have previously fired that many rounds in the span of 48 hours.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-burning-artillery-shells-now-010656309.html

You are taking a negative view on Ukraines chances again, what proportion of the population can Ukraine mobilise arm and train , what proportion can Russia afford to.
How long before the Russian provinces work out Moscow and St Petersburg are bleeding them dry.

Wave 1 - conscripts fully loaded with ammo but hardly any weapons
wave 2, 3, 4 - more conscripts, but with the purpose to move the ammo a bit further

Gives the Ukranians plenty of time to figure out exactly where the ammo dumps are located. I've seen loads of vids of a bullseye artillery shot at a Russian ammo dump, this goes a long way to explain how they can be so certain.

There is very little practical use for dumb 155mm artillery shells in defense anyway. Sure, Ukraine could continue destroying its own cities with them, but it is much smarter to kill the invaders using drones and nimble mortar teams.

Visited a friend who had a house built by a team of guys from Ukraine just before the war. He said they finished what they had to do and then packed their stuff, hopped into their old van and went to defend their country. 3 of them are dead now.

Also said one of the guys was not mobilised and is still waiting for his turn, although every man from his village was mobilised. So he's just volunteering here and there and is waiting for his turn.

Sorry to hear that.Sad real life story.Those guys are REAL Heroes who paid highest price for freedom of their country and their nation...

Another high-ranking Russian government official has been defenestrated - sorry, committed suicide by jumping out of a window which happens every day throughout the world:

https://nypost.com/2023/02/16/top-putin-war-official-marine-yankina-plunges-to-her-death/

Heroiam Slava!

This is getting way more sinister now.

Bet the price of bungalows in Russia is going through the roof.

through the roof.

Through the holes made by out of favour officials coming the other way?

Biden in Kiev...pretty strong signal at symbolic level

Yeah, its massive. And really dangerous.

I don't think there is much chance Ruzzia would really attack when Biden is there. They are cowards and know that it would be pretty much end of Ruzzia as we know if they were to harm the president of the US of A. Biden is an old guy, has very little to lose and whole lot to win. The new gear will eventually start rolling in and now it would be a really good idea for the mobiks to pack their packs and go home. Maybe they could even start a revolution or a coup.

BTW. Prigozhin is openly complaining about lack of ammo. There is clearly a power struggle in Kremlin and somebody is bound to fall out of the window or take a sip of wrong kind of tea soon. Let's hope the winner is not some nut job even worse than Putler.