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  • So apparently there'll be a chronic shortage of lithium by 2025. What's going to happen to EV manufacturing?

    A few different things (non-exhaustive list)

    • End of life Lithium batteries will be mined for lithium, since dead batteries are about as lithium rich as good ore deposits but don't need digging
    • "Shortage" of an abundant element like lithium just means the same as price, as rich ores are worked out the price goes up making poorer ores economical. There is more than enough lithium in the crustal rocks for any conceivable EV needs, including aviation and shipping, as long as people want it enough to pay for it
    • Alternative battery technologies using much more abundant elements as the charge carrier (sodium, calcium) could replace or complement lithium. Currently lithium is favoured for high energy density, but even if other technologies fail to match it they might become so much cheaper that lithium will only be for Ferraris and aircraft, and everyday vehicles will use the cheap but heavy option
    • If batteries get either expensive or heavy, hydrogen (fuel cell or internal combustion) will be more competitive. Fully synthetic liquid hydrocarbons are as carbon neutral and sustainable as hydrogen, but may be too expensive to offset the cheaper infrastructure, and liquid hydrocarbon road fuel infrastructure might have vanished before that gets tested
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