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  • Maybe, but what happens if Farage decides to take over the leadership of Reform and stand against the Tories for betraying Brexit? Then they are both competing for the same voters and Reform would take enough that they’d lose even more seats.

  • Maybe that’s also in the Tory’s thoughts - placate Farage by appointing right wing nutters so he won’t wade back in. It certainly must be a concern.

    I hate to get too excited about how fucked they are, it always seems to turn back at election time. But it didn’t in 1997. I know that was then, but it could be again.

  • I think that is exactly what 30p was promoted there to do.

    But as Dammit says, I hope that actually means we'll see even further splits. If Reform can take another 5% of the Tory right vote they could be completely destroyed.

  • I read something recently, I think it was written by Nick Tyrone, that argued that Farage will hold off re-entering mainstream politics until he knows who is set to lead the Tories into the next election. If it's Sunak, he'll do it, but if it's Johnson then he knows he doesn't stand a chance so he won't.

    I also read something on a repeat of 1997, can't remember who by though. They argued quite persuasively that a repeat is very unlikely as the polling is consistently bad for the Tories, across the whole country, and tactical voting will have a yet to be determined impact but that it won't be in their favour.

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