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Preface - Musk is a cunt & I own a Tesla.
Tesla is more than just its vehicle sales though:
- Battery storage and solar infrastructure for businesses and homes
- Commercial vehicles
- Driverless tech (if it works)
Toyota are a company who have just retired their CEO as their transition to BEV is basically non-existent.
Not saying Tesla valuation is 100% accurate but comparing it to a dying brand is silly.
- Battery storage and solar infrastructure for businesses and homes
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Toyota continue to sell more cars than anyone else in the world by a country mile. Quiet, conservative business practice from the most experienced people in the industry won’t bring ExPonENTiaL GrOWtH but it isn’t the same thing as dying.
Powerwalls are now too expensive compared to their competitors, installers aren’t specifying them.
Tesla self drive isn’t as good as Ford, never mind Mercedes.
Logistics firms won’t buy the trucks until long-term reliability is proven, reliability matters to these businesses in a way it doesn’t to private car owners and Tesla’s reputation is a problem.
My point is, the current valuation is still based on hope rather than actual profitability. My £5 is on that hope diminishing as competitors increasingly make Tesla products look shonkmax.
Still miles off tho.
Toyota sold 10 million cars in 2022, 250bn revenue and has a market cap of 200bn.
Tesla sold 1.3 million cars in 2022, 81bn revenue and has a market cap of 550bn.
Tesla’s gross profit margin has been much better - 25-odd% against 15-odd% for Toyota but even with that the stock is still way above any sensible multiple of its current earnings, or indeed its potential future earnings. It’ll drop another 50% at least.