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I think Poland had already decided to move away from Leopards, they are buying and coproducing Korean K2 tanks and SPGs. Most other countries have a post Cold War surplus of MBTs they won’t replace with anything.
Which countries are you thinking of, replacing Leo with Abrams is a big step.I do think you are right and Scholtz isn’t committed to total Ukrainian victory (and is a self interested shit) but restrictions on End User Certificates is pushing countries away from German (and Swiss) weapons.
There is an argument that some would put forwards for not sending the western tanks as you risk alienating the russian people and at some point in a post Putin world you want them not despising the west which is what they are being fed already by state media but becomes an easy line to push when you can start pointing to body bags coming home due to german tanks
Germans were also not happy that US was pushing send Leopards and offering to provide nato countries with US manufactured replacements, taking away customers from the german manufactures