In the news

You are reading a single comment by @greentricky and its replies. Click here to read the full conversation.

•

rhb in reply to @greentricky

This is not normal.

Since 1948, this measure of spending power reliably increased in the UK, doubling every 30 years. It was about twice as high in 1978 as in 1948 and was in touching distance of doubling again by 2008

Unfortunately, I feel the need to ask... what if this 60 years, when charted amongst the preceeding, let's say 1200 years, simply wasn't normal, but was a blip?

•

greentricky in reply to @rhb

The following paragraph....

Go back and look for historical precedents for this, and you will not find much. In the National Institute Economic Review, economic historians Nick Crafts and Terence Mills examined the growth in labour productivity over the very long run. (This is defined as the total output of the UK economy divided by the total number of hours worked; labour productivity is closely connected to material standards of living.) They do find worse runs of performance — 1760 to 1800 was not much fun — but none within living memory. Nowhere in 260 years of data do they find a sharper shortfall from the previous trend. The past 15 years have been a disappointment on a scale that previous generations of British economists could hardly have imagined.

•

rhb in reply to @greentricky

I guess 260 years of data is still a potential blip in the grand scheme of things? How does that trend match up to a 260 year snapshot of any chosen time between the 5th and 11th centuries, for example?

About

Avatar for greentricky @greentricky started