Russian invasion of Ukraine

Long term, the arithmetic of manpower works to Moscow’s advantage as Russia has 3.5 times Ukraine’s population. Even if Russia loses two soldiers for every one Ukrainian service member killed, it still improves its relative strength. So far, Western officials say, Russia’s battlefield fatalities—numbering in several tens of thousands—are comparable to Ukraine’s.

The calculus on ammunition and weaponry is more complicated. Ukraine uses up Western-supplied 155 mm artillery shells at roughly twice the rate that they are being manufactured by the U.S. and allies, military analysts say. At this rate of fire, Kyiv could draw down U.S. and European reserves to critical levels at some point this summer or fall.

By then, Russia—with its single-minded focus on the war—may be able to expand its own ammunition production to keep pace with the tempo of the fighting. The U.S. and allies are also investing in new ammunition production lines, but these are unlikely to make a major difference until next year, creating a potentially dangerous gap between Ukraine’s and Russia’s firepower in the second half of 2023.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-long-west-ready-11673571215