The fall of the Tory party

The Conservative party spent 2022 at war with itself and begins 2023 in an uneasy truce. To keep the peace, Rishi Sunak has to avoid two contentious topics: the past and the future. That doesn’t leave much room for manoeuvre.

From here.

There is a scenario in which Sunak gets really lucky with the macro in the short / medium term. Energy prices are coming down, winter is warm, Europe (ex UK) is no longer forecast to go into recession, US looks like it might engineer a soft landing?

Doesn't fix long-term competitiveness problems / Brexit issues but could allow him to paint some of Starmer's criticism as Project Fear?

Poor lad gets a few extra days off, how will he cope?

The answer is it's giving him more time for his peddling of more anti-vax propaganda, obviously... Comparison to the Holocaust now and quoting a fictional, unnamed medic. What a sneering, grifting, mendacious and frankly dangerous little fat cunt he is. I guess this is his play for life post-politics? Jump on the conspiracy grift bandwagon.

Bridgen has now also lost the whip.

He never really reported to them anyway. But they were happy enough when he was just a liar, failing to adhere to the MPs' code of conduct, trying to intimidate a public official and with trying to use the police for bogus inquiry for a personal vendetta...

Bridgen is a thoroughly obnoxious cunt. Imagine seeing him, listening to him and thinking "yep, he speaks to my values".

He has a 20+k majority.

He has a 20+k majority.

That's places like Ashby-de-la-Zouch for you.

^ Yup. I was going to cite Coalville, but same-same...

Sadly there are many places round the country with batshit MPs with 20+k majorities

I lived in Coalville/NW Leicestershire for six months after I left school. Safe to say I could not fucking wait to get out of there.....

He was clearly gunning for a ban to make himself more 'believable' to the conspiracy nutjobs.

Liar? Bully? Corrupt? Populist? Shameless? Time to put a fiver on his being PM by 2030.

There is a scenario in which Sunak gets really lucky with the macro in the short / medium term. Energy prices are coming down, winter is warm, Europe (ex UK) is no longer forecast to go into recession, US looks like it might engineer a soft landing?

Doesn't fix long-term competitiveness problems / Brexit issues but could allow him to paint some of Starmer's criticism as Project Fear?

If the EU doesn't go into recession but we do, what sort of picture does that paint of Brexit/the current administrations level of competence, whilst of course your gran dies in her sitting room whilst waiting for an ambulance.

The international comparison is obviously key to a proper analysis of Sunak's performance, but I wonder whether it really cuts through to the average voter.

I just suspect that are people out there (who are fortunate enough not to rely on public services that much) who will come to think that forecasts of economic armageddon were overblown. Some ridiculous fraction of Tory voters are mortgage-free so aren't even impacted by rising interest rates that much.

At the most simplistic level, petrol prices down = good? That's the heart of US political calculus.

who are fortunate enough not to rely on public services that much

I broke my leg last week. Time from entering A&E in horrible pain to leaving in a cast making jokes with the porter was 3 hours. If I didn’t read the lefty press and have friends who work there I’d probably have concluded the NHS was fine.

Some ridiculous fraction of Tory voters are mortgage-free so aren't even impacted by rising interest rates that much.

One-third of home owners are mortgage free. Mostly those aged 60+. Those people are also likely to have cash savings that have been useless these last 15 years. High interest rates are great news for them.

The Government is considering exempting the over-50s from income tax.

I mean, on the one hand, what an ugly and obvious grab for votes in their remaining constituency. How ridiculously ill-conceived, patently unfair and completely nonsensical.
On the other hand, as an over-50, yay - profit! *

'* I don't mean this - I am happy to pay my share of taxes.

Fuck me that's a such a stupid idea ... it's bound to work for them.

The Daily Heil comment section is already chock full of over 50s lauding the 'policy' and complaining about young people so it sounds like it's working perfectly.

Boomer madness.

The UK has a £3tn (trillion!!) gap in the state pension balance. And it's getting worse because of the birth rate and ageing population problem. Isn't that over 50s policy dumb AF in that regard?

Or maybe that's the point. Labour would have to reverse it quicksharp.

I'll just start going into restaurants and stealing the food of anyone with grey hair. Should even it out a bit

I feel like there's a lot of "government is considering..." stuff happening. Put an idea out there, make loads of positive or culture war headlines, then quietly shelve it once the media cycle has moved on.

Also, does that mean I can stockpile money in my company as I approach my 50th and pay myself a tax free salary to top up my pension and savings? Sounds like something that shouldn't be possible.

Absolutely nuts. A swingeing wealth tax on boomers' BTL and pension assets would achieve the same incentives to return to work but bring in some much-needed revenue.

I suspect if it ever sees the light of day, it would have been watered down to be something like an increase in the personal allowance up to £15k.

I can't see the current suggestion getting throught the commons and the Lords. Its madness. Self destructive madness.