You are reading a single comment by @NickCJ and its replies. Click here to read the full conversation.
  • There is a scenario in which Sunak gets really lucky with the macro in the short / medium term. Energy prices are coming down, winter is warm, Europe (ex UK) is no longer forecast to go into recession, US looks like it might engineer a soft landing?

    Doesn't fix long-term competitiveness problems / Brexit issues but could allow him to paint some of Starmer's criticism as Project Fear?

    If the EU doesn't go into recession but we do, what sort of picture does that paint of Brexit/the current administrations level of competence, whilst of course your gran dies in her sitting room whilst waiting for an ambulance.

  • The international comparison is obviously key to a proper analysis of Sunak's performance, but I wonder whether it really cuts through to the average voter.

    I just suspect that are people out there (who are fortunate enough not to rely on public services that much) who will come to think that forecasts of economic armageddon were overblown. Some ridiculous fraction of Tory voters are mortgage-free so aren't even impacted by rising interest rates that much.

    At the most simplistic level, petrol prices down = good? That's the heart of US political calculus.

  • who are fortunate enough not to rely on public services that much

    I broke my leg last week. Time from entering A&E in horrible pain to leaving in a cast making jokes with the porter was 3 hours. If I didn’t read the lefty press and have friends who work there I’d probably have concluded the NHS was fine.

    Some ridiculous fraction of Tory voters are mortgage-free so aren't even impacted by rising interest rates that much.

    One-third of home owners are mortgage free. Mostly those aged 60+. Those people are also likely to have cash savings that have been useless these last 15 years. High interest rates are great news for them.

About

Avatar for NickCJ @NickCJ started