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There is a scenario in which Sunak gets really lucky with the macro in the short / medium term. Energy prices are coming down, winter is warm, Europe (ex UK) is no longer forecast to go into recession, US looks like it might engineer a soft landing?
Doesn't fix long-term competitiveness problems / Brexit issues but could allow him to paint some of Starmer's criticism as Project Fear?
If the EU doesn't go into recession but we do, what sort of picture does that paint of Brexit/the current administrations level of competence, whilst of course your gran dies in her sitting room whilst waiting for an ambulance.
Dammit-
The international comparison is obviously key to a proper analysis of Sunak's performance, but I wonder whether it really cuts through to the average voter.
I just suspect that are people out there (who are fortunate enough not to rely on public services that much) who will come to think that forecasts of economic armageddon were overblown. Some ridiculous fraction of Tory voters are mortgage-free so aren't even impacted by rising interest rates that much.
At the most simplistic level, petrol prices down = good? That's the heart of US political calculus.
NickCJ
There is a scenario in which Sunak gets really lucky with the macro in the short / medium term. Energy prices are coming down, winter is warm, Europe (ex UK) is no longer forecast to go into recession, US looks like it might engineer a soft landing?
Doesn't fix long-term competitiveness problems / Brexit issues but could allow him to paint some of Starmer's criticism as Project Fear?