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  • There is a scenario in which Sunak gets really lucky with the macro in the short / medium term. Energy prices are coming down, winter is warm, Europe (ex UK) is no longer forecast to go into recession, US looks like it might engineer a soft landing?

    Doesn't fix long-term competitiveness problems / Brexit issues but could allow him to paint some of Starmer's criticism as Project Fear?

  • There is a scenario in which Sunak gets really lucky with the macro in the short / medium term. Energy prices are coming down, winter is warm, Europe (ex UK) is no longer forecast to go into recession, US looks like it might engineer a soft landing?

    Doesn't fix long-term competitiveness problems / Brexit issues but could allow him to paint some of Starmer's criticism as Project Fear?

    If the EU doesn't go into recession but we do, what sort of picture does that paint of Brexit/the current administrations level of competence, whilst of course your gran dies in her sitting room whilst waiting for an ambulance.

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