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Apparently the machine has an exposed socket in the electronics box pushing UART/serial, in which it will give you various stats couple of times a second. And the pump action is (unreliably) detected by a reed switch I stuck to the side of the pump, which closes a couple of contacts. I also tried to get an 12v output from the machine to power the Raspberry Pico (using a voltage converter) but didn't work, maybe my cable has fallen off. Need to tip the machine up and open the
backbottom cover to check (to check the unreliable pump detection issue as well) and that needs a cold coffee machine, which in turn means I should do it after I finish drinking coffees for the day... but every day at that point I'm either busy or don't want to deal with it.
I was just able to determine when to get up from my chair to go get coffee (which the machine was pre-heating as I've just turned it on) by looking at MQTT messages. Still need to figure out why my shot timer sensor behaves weirdly, maybe I have to restick it to a different place on the pump.