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  • Doesn’t take much for Reform to ‘step aside’ like the Brexit Party did in 2019 and the Tories are knocking on 30% again

  • The reform vote won’t automatically go to Tory’s if they drop out like the brexit party did in 2019.

  • Not automatically but certainly within the bounds of possibility that a deal could be done , especially with the Tories approaching last roll of the dice territory (if they aren’t already there).

    Add in all the inevitable attacks on Starmer - Saville, woke, Corbyn, doesn’t know what a women is etc - and suddenly you’ve got shy voters back in the game and 35% is within
    reach

    (I concede that I’m being pessimistic but don’t think it’s over until it actually is)

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