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  • The problem with the "billionaires must be geniuses" is that many people think that wealth must be somehow proportional to intellect, i.e. the more money = the cleverer they must have been to earn it.

    Many of the billionaires are just "not-thick" and were just plain lucky to be in the right place at the right time and had 4 or 5 consecutive bets come in. There are a whole load of cleverer people who made millions but didn't get the luck to convert this into billions.

  • lucky to be in the right place at the right time

    Very much this. It's survivorship bias. Loads of lottery winners out there but it probably isn't you.

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