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If you theoretically replaced all the air in your house with outside air at 5 degrees at 80%RH and heated it to 20 degrees the RH would be 35% - I think.
I did open the windows for an hour before whacking the heating on for this reason.
Another calculator suggests that at 65%RH @ 20C makes the dew point 12 degrees. So if the external wall is 12 degrees there will be condensation (?)
Whilst the sensor may be inaccurate (gonna buy a good one), the condensation mark has reappeared on the wall today.
Depends on the temperature though