The fall of the Tory party

No.

But its pretty embarassing for the government because that was Labour's position all along. I.e start off with blanket coverage and switch to targetted and means tested. The gov rejected this approach.

AS recently as last week Truss was laying into Starmer for only wanting to provide blanket support until April too.

Has she got anything left standing from her original plans?it looks pretty bad for her doesn't it, like the grown ups (if any of them can be described as that) have stepped in and tidied up the mess she made.

I'm personally focussing on the energy bill u-turn because its particularly funny that in less than a week they've criticised the opposition for having inadequate plans for energy bills before adopting the very plan they were criticising as incorrect.

I see no situation where Truss can hang on. Its what happens next that is really vague though...I can't see how they can avoid just shaking their party to pieces whoever they elect. They'll run out of ways to avoid a GE sooner or later.

I agree that means testing would be preferable, continuation of the grant would in my opinion be better than the blanket cap. The cap benefits the rich significantly more as they use generally more energy.

I’m sure they’ll fuck up any implementation of means tested subsidises though, cannot wait to hear the treasury review.

The wider picture is more worry, when people actually felt they had some certainty with their bills.

I suppose the bigger question now in relation to the thread is What does Liz Truss actually stand for?

The cap benefits the rich significantly more as they use generally more energy

Is that right? It’s not a cap on bills, it’s a cap on unit price isn’t it?

Well the "Chancellors who have fucked Liz Truss" WhatsApp group has a new member.

Their savings are greater. Heating the Mayfair pad.

They'll run out of ways to avoid a GE sooner or later.

Why would they call an election though? They've got a massive majority, so won't have to worry about one being forced on them, and if they called one they'd lose.

Why wouldn't they wait as long as they can?

Probably, although I'm not sure the highest incomes etc correlate that well with largest houses. At the very top maybe yes, but if the cut off is £100k per year or even £150k then that will capture a lot of smallish London houses for families, say.

Do they use loads more on heating than old folk in houses they bought 30, 40 years ago? Not sure they do

Why wouldn't they wait as long as they can?

I agree and have said this to others outside here and been shouted down that there must be one if she goes. I can't get my head around why they would, as they've shown zero love for convention or goodwill/honour for years.

Will be interesting to see PMQs. She's shit enough at public speaking/thinking on her feet, but having to defend this hot mess would challenge anyone. She's now going to have to defend exactly what she attacked Labour for last week - there's no line that can work for that.
And If she is 'away' that undermines her position even more terminally.

Maybe she'll walk before then.

would means testing subsidies be bad?

Often the administration of means testing costs as much as providing the benefit to everyone. Plus if people have to actively apply you end up excluding those who don't hear about it / can't fill out paperwork / don't have good internet access etc, which is inevitably the poorest.

Yes. This is true. Especially if the scheme is designed in a rush. If they had gotten started on the work in April maybe they could have done something effective. Now we are in mid October there is no way to do this for winter 2022/23.

In principle you could imagine a system where the first essential amount of energy for each household gets a heavily subsided price and then each further block of energy attracts an ever escalating price. Probably with regional variation in the size of the blocks to reflect the fact it is a lot colder in winter in Glasgow than London for example. But doing something like this requires a focused competent government.

Why would they call an election though? They've got a massive majority, so won't have to worry about one being forced on them, and if they called one they'd lose.

Why wouldn't they wait as long as they can?

Complete destruction of the Conservative Party as a result of infighting.

Wouldn't be suprised if Johnson was PM again in a few weeks.

Just seen a poll suggesting SNP could end up as the opposition party, such is the drubbing the tories are facing. Now that would be a wild conclusion to this pantomime.

yes, i guess this is correct.

I would imagine they’ll use the existing benefits systems (UC, JSA, Pension credit etc..) broadly to assess. They’ll look to make significant savings.

Yep - this kind of structure seems very sensible and would motivate people to be energy efficient.

I was perhaps looking at the more extremes in energy consumption. Those renting affordable accommodation, trying to make ends meet vs high net worth. I appreciate there are always exceptions to the rule. This in part is why I prefer the grant as a blanket approach. Will now probably hit middle earners hard. All a bit shit really.

Yeah I agree - obviously look at the extremes and it seems really clear that it needs to be means tested; I think the issue is that to make that a meaningful saving the cut off is always low enough to catch quite a few people. Most people have a similar idea of what sounds like "well off" and hence we have loads and loads of things that kick in (or help that stops) at £100k or thereabouts. Not saying those earners are the most deserving of help but it doesn't feel like a well designed system if too many income thresholds line up

If they had gotten started on the work in April maybe they could have done something effective.

So much of this lot can be summed up in a similar way.

RE? Even if we'd have carried on as we were we'd have been in a better position.

Someone on AQ on Friday said that the government had acted quickly! Wtf? Sometimes I think there's a case to say an opposition is just sniping from the side lines, but Labour have been suggesting fucking solutions.

Then you hear random callins talking about some sort of unity government when this lot refuse to implement obvious policies, until eventually it gets to the point that they've run out of shit alternatives.

clear that it needs to be means tested

I wonder if a faster/cheaper way would be to add whatever 0.xx% is required on to the higher band tax rates to remove the rebate.

Surely it's just updating the formula in HMRC's xls.

it doesn't feel like a well designed system if too many income thresholds line up

Yeah - you get these odd situations where the marginal effective tax rate is extremely high (even >100% in some corner cases). It can create big disparities between single earner and double earner households with the same aggregate gross £.

Incredible scenes - a complete sitting duck.

Worth reminding that over 40% of working age people in the UK don't pay any tax, mainly because they don't earn money to pay tax on. These tax cuts were never going to help them directly or indirectly.

Whats a penny in the pound income tax reduction to somebody earning £7k a year going to do to their cost of living?