The fall of the Tory party

Somewhere over the rainbow, way up high
There's a land that I heard of once in a lullaby
Somewhere over the rainbow, skies are blue
And in babylon dreams that you dare to dream
Will never come true
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Hope everyone is doing well
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We've gone from can we heat our homes to can we keep our homes
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Chant down babylon

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Brexit broke the link between governance and reason, between policy and evidence.

Until Brexit, politicians only rarely got away with defying the empirical facts or elementary logic.

Sorry - and I know these aren’t your words - but this is abject horseshit. FFS the 6 years preceding Brexit were presided over by an austerian Conservative regime. What exactly was the rationale for austerity? Was it reasoned, was it based on evidence? Did it conform to elementary facts and logic? Similarly, pretty sure we went to war back in the early 2000’s on the basis of zero facts and zero logic and the politicians responsible got away with that scot free (lol, they’re still feted in the press and given fawning interviews).

Let’s stop pretending like Brexit was this country’s downfall. Everything was fucked before Brexit. It’s just that Brexit universalised how fucked we were, rather than constraining the fuckedness to the poor, the sick and the otherwise marginalised.

I don’t fundamentally disagree but things have worsened markedly since 2016 and the velocity of shit over the past few years is astonishing culminating in the absolute state of things currently.

No Brexit, no May, Johnson, Truss.

The reason given for austerity was to avoid what we’ve just seen - if the country spends more than it gets in then the international markets (whatever they are) think we’re shit and fuck us. The austerites will argue that what just happened proves they were right I expect.

I have no opinion on this because it’s too hard for me to understand.

The reason given for austerity was to avoid what we’ve just seen

don't agree - austerity was ideologically driven, damaging and unneeded.

what came next amply demonstrated that we can afford to support people and services better without causing hyper inflation or breaking the £.

The austerites will argue that what just happened proves they were right I expect.

Yep - they are. (E.g Rory Stewart)

I didn’t say it was true, I said it was the reason given.

Everyone did it during the ‘Rona so it didn’t disadvantage the uk, relative to everyone else. Is what they’ll say.

Lots more austerity is on the way if the blue colour people stay in power.

No it wasn’t. Interest rates, borrowing rates etc etc were low across the board and disinflation was more of a concern than inflation. Smart, evidenced economic policy would have said that this was the time for state spending to stimulate the economy. Instead the Tories (backed by the press, the commentariat, and the right wing of the Labour Party) decided to waste this once in a lifetime to invest in our infrastructure pretty much for free in order to wage an ideological war on the size of the state, and on the poor.

I said it was the reason given

ah yes. apologies, I didn't read that line very carefully. agreed on that point.

.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/15/demonise-or-romanticise-choice-in-framing-working-class-lives

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This article has some great bits, really shows what a shit show Truss is running, even claims upto a 100 letters have gone in to the 1922
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-is-the-latest-victim-of-a-never-ending-tory-death-cult-708h3v2c8

Pay wall.

https://archive.ph/ukZ49

Thanks
So Truss is fucked
Obv

There'll be a point though surely, hungry or cold or both will cause great anger.

People are already cold and hungry it didn't trigger street protests last year?

A surprising (to me) large number of people own their homes outright
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/researchoutputssubnationaldwellingstockbytenureestimatesengland2012to2015/2020

I haven’t found a demographic breakdown of ownership, but the areas that the ONS cites as having the largest share of outright ownership skew older - so a lot of these people are, if not retired already, and rapidly approaching it.

They’re not going to be rioting in the streets, and they’re also much more insulated from price inflation than younger people with a mortgage or living in a rental (although not entirely insulated, and anything that threatens their pensions is a major issue for them).

Was reading about mortgages and found that only 15% of properties in London have a mortgage. Posted on the car thread

https://www.lfgss.com/conversations/140329/?offset=72675#comment16724011

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Like yourself the stats seem pretty muddled. Can't see riots in the streets of London if correct.

i remember reading the drive in the us after ww2 to get people into homes was in part motivated by a politics of surpressing uprising as people would be in fear of their mortgages. I have been recently thinking how much this same logic applies to student loan debts and related work arrangements. It makes sense to me that we have seen recently a new era of pre-uni-age protestors, Greta being the figurehead. These are the only demographic left with motive but without the threat of losing what they are indebted for, if you see what I mean.

That needs some unpacking before it becomes meaningful.

Is that 15% of properties? Or 15% of privately owned residential properties?

I agree. It was reported on the BBC website and I tried to look into it but couldn't untangle the stats.

The article was going on about people but couldn't imagine only 15% of people in London living in a house with no mortgage. If even vaguely true there's a lot of houses that are owned outright which surprised me.

I just assumed most people had a mortgage then died....

had a mortgage then died

That's the dream.

Lots of details in https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/housing_in_london_2020.pdf

A roughly equal share of households in London own their home, either outright or with a
mortgage, and rent their home, either from a public or a private landlord

About 25% of households in London have a mortgage. Similar own outright. Same again are private rented and the rest are social rented.

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Yeah but I guess an awful lot of 50-70yo paid somewhere between £50-400k for their places.

Classic right to buy anecdote, but my old bosses neighbour worked checkout in M&S. She owned the equivalent of his rented 2 bed in Kings Cross. Idk the value but I think 10yrs ago he was paying a bit over grand a month rent for a rough price gauge.

Give these passionate allies and ideological bedfellows

Andrew Rawnsley going as close as he can here to those rumours about Truss and Kwarteng. From here.