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Do you have anything noisy on there? I use a disc alarm lock up front for the purpose of being a noisy inconvenience.
The 19mm chain through the ground anchor is for security, the cover is so my arse doesn’t get too wet in the morning. The tracker is just for recovery, OK I’m in a lower crime area with a front drive but still London (technically).
I think the most likely explanation is a thief checking it out. It wasn't knocked over. And he didn't try to steal it. He would have seen the big expensive lock and chain and wondered what the bike was. He didn't mean to knock the mirror off, it's easily done when pulling at the cover. Sensible owners add bits of string to stop the mirrors falling on the ground. I did that the other day, 3 years late but it will probably still save me lots of money by preventing the smashing or loss of the mirror housings. They're the same height as car mirrors and they don't fold. Surprising that i still have them.