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Doesn't seem like it needs to be an either or, though. I use an Endura MTR Shell jacket (Bought cheap) which is waterproof. I'm never cold on commutes and it's breathable enough I'll wear it for warmth when it's cold, but not raining.
Is being wet not a precursor to being cold? Don't mind my lower half getting wet, but a good waterproof cycling jacket improves things no end from a warmth perspective.