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  • It's all a bit up the ladder/down the ladder but we have needed to reverse the direction of the trade deficit for quite a while and part of what we're seeing now are the consequences.

    Higher oil prices and a weak currency should affect imports as they will become more expensive where goods manufactured in the UK will become more competitive with imports and our exports may start to look cheaper.

    For example we've been selling ships and stuff to France and Germany. The cost of the oil to deliver them is not such a big part of that deal. If you are negotiating with Rolls Royce for supply of engines and your alternative engine supplier is pricing in dollars with a contract potential lasting ten years you now might favour the Rolls Royce option.

    Really we could separate the big business of import/export from the aliexpress/amazon type goods.

    Another point worth bearing in mind is the treasury doesn't just sit on it's hands. They hold very large quantities of foreign currency to hedge the markets.

  • I do wonder a bit about how this plays out but surely there are discussions ahead of the kind of announcements made which lead to conversations with the Treasury and given that they will have strong beliefs about what the announcements will create in the markets they then go ahead forewarned and prepare a strategy (i.e. short the pound in some way).

    Certainly this was what Carney alluded to around the Brexit referendum.

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