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Hang on are we mixing up whether the Lords pass bills which were in the manafesto?
Surely a government still has to pass a bill to pass the laws on how the electoral system works? For which they'd then need parliamentary majority.
I guess a key calculation is how many Tory seats the lib dems and greens take. Because they'd definitely vote for it, so as long as you have a decent number of Labour MPs in favour it'd go through.
I'm sure I read that if it's in the manifesto, they can crack on and implement it with no further consultation (eg there's a mandate for it), but if it's not in the manifesto they have to jump through all the hoops that lead to it failing last time? Or have I got that wrong...