Russian invasion of Ukraine

"partial" mobilisation.

what does it actually mean?

They've run out of troops on the front line, and cannot replenish them quickly enough from volunteers (or prisoners, etc).

All those on the reservists are basically being called up in a prioritised order, initially 300k are being called up. Total reservists is 2M.

The decree to do that is signed (attempting to leave Russia or not respond when called makes you a deserter).

"Partial" in that this is not a general conscription at this time, and only a portion of the total reserves.

It means all reserves and ‘anyone with military experience’ is off to the front line.

Given Russia is a conscription country, that’s quite a lot of people. 2m reservists + maybe 30% of the male population.

Love to see them try to equip them with clothes let alone guns and ammunition.

AFAICT, that's what it is.

Russia stock market is down more than 10%, searches on search engines for how to leave Russia is at a record high.

It's a mess, but Putin continues to paint himself into a corner.

Sounds like it'll be Stalingrad all over again. One soldier attacks with a rifle, and another unarmed one runs behind ready to pick it up when the first one falls.

I'd like to see an age breakdown of those 2m reservists.

Uneducated guess: it mirrors the general population with 0-16's and 50+'s removed

thx, so is kinda like a desperate move... lets hope something crazy does not happen (atomic)

Military service is between 18 and 27 years old for 2 years. I think most people do it super young. When I was in moscow about 10 years ago I remember seeing thousands of groups of 3 lads in uniform walking around the city. They all look very young, i guess a popular choice is to get it out the way earlier?

I'm not sure if there is any choice in when you start, but I cant imagine there will be anyone starting their service any time soon.

so is kinda like a desperate move

Not totally desperate, but a continued doubling down on the whole thing... so escalating rather than de-escalating.

This takes us further from "special operation" and closer to "war" for the Russian people... one of these didn't have to be painted in terms of victory or defeat. As they are now mobilising, this is essentially war... and that makes it much harder to find a political path out of this mess soon, and more likely to see continued escalation in the short/mid term.

Russians are against the war if ethnic Russians have to fight it.

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a continued doubling down

They do know how to boil the frog veeeery slowly. There has been a continuous erosion of checks and balances for decades.

I know the general clusterfuck of the Russian army could be taken to mean the Russians just stubled into it without really thinking things through, but that could just as much be down to Putin's subordinates giving him crap intel.

It won't matter how many soldiers he calls up if they can't supply them with food fuel and ammo. This is why RU state media keeps freaking out about ATACMS missile systems because they have the range to take out all the rail links and bridges to everywhere in Crimea etc. HIMARS range vs ATACMS below

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RU state media keeps freaking out about ATACMS missile systems because they have the range to take out all the rail links and bridges to everywhere in Crimea

I really believe, without any knowledge of it, that the provision of those systems to Ukraine comes with a "do not use these across the Russian border (as the border stood a decade ago)" or something to that effect.

NATO do not want to be pulled in... have the tools, but moderate the use to avoid pulling NATO in.

But yeah, that Crimea bridge is going to be hit soon, as well as rail lines within Ukraine.

I read somewhere that biggest point in mobilization is that Ruzzia will be able to keep the soldiers already on the front there despite them wanting to leave. Also it affects only areas near Ukraine so they will not be sending people from big cities.

. Also it affects only areas near Ukraine so they will not be sending people from big cities

Russian press is reporting that the mobilisation decree does not contain anything specific about the numbers called up, or where they come from.

It's basically a full national mobilisation, but the press broadcast added the 300K and "partial" elements... that isn't what is in the piece of law just signed.

So whatever the mobilisation is, is yet to be seen in practise. In theory, it's a full mobilisation.

Remembering the classics: https://youtu.be/zdd7cm1azzY

And (as we both follow those in the know on twitter) once the supply lines are narrowed and concentrated even further and the rain comes those Alibaba fake Michelins will start rolling off whatever equipment they have left for re-supply.

Demoralised reserves with no winter equipment, intermittent supply of food/ammunition, knowing that sitting near any ordinance just increases your chance of being Himarsed instead of offering protection as you try to fight a despots unjust war in a country you likely have no personal agency in.

what’s the worst that can happen...

what’s the worst that can happen...

We won't need to worry about heating our homes this winter, as they'll be super-heated for a few moments before being flattened?

Exactly this, what matters is whats written in the decree, which is aparently completely open ended so they can call up whoever when it suits. I'd be getting my arse out of Russia.

Also seeing reports that mobilisation summons are being issued in St Petersburg already so thats big..

https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1572515245553516544?s=20&t=pPUmK26r-eMOpocCq5WYBA

I would imagine China have had his ear about that, they want a continued market (the west) for their goods and no radioactive rain falling on their territory, they want nuclear destruction of the world just as much as everyone else apart from putin obviously but if he hit’s that button what does he win? assuming the weapons actually work due to the years of corruption and siphoning of funds.

A tactical small nuke will just speed up the delivery of ATACMS and suddenly everything 300k over the border becomes vulnerable.
The west isn’t going to sit on it’s hands if the stakes are raised, Ukraine will have anything it wants for a ground/air war at it’s disposal., exactly the opposite of what putin wants to happen.

dont say this....fkn hell

I watched an interesting video on why the bridge hasn't been targeted yet. Here;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE5afkEqG08

Mkay. Time to move to the southern hemisphere.