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I think catastrophe is certain, because the heating seems to be happening faster than the accepted predictions, e.g. this recent news https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/29/major-sea-level-rise-caused-by-melting-of-greenland-ice-cap-is-now-inevitable-27cm-climate So maybe the numbers of Western kids will be offset by mass famine in the Southern hemisphere. Plus lots of old people dying a bit early because of heatwaves. And a few drownings. Poisonings because of no clean water. And possibly a worldwide decrease in life expectancy because of long term effects of Covid. From the FT the other day: "The growing evidence that Covid-19 is leaving people sicker....Covid generated a kind of epidemiological aftershock by leaving people susceptible to a huge range of other conditions, threatening global health systems already struggling with insufficient resources and ageing populations." https://archive.ph/TfLS6
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nick_h.
Maybe I'm a bit pessimistic, but I think the only way we can avoid real climate catastrophe is some combination of (i) reduce the carbon intensity of "Western" lifestyles and (ii) reduce the growth rate in the number of people living those lifestyles.
Given that during our lifetimes we will see massive climate-driven displacement of people, largely into Western countries, the planet just doesn't have that much spare capacity for loads of Western kids.
I hope I'm wrong.