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Pretty much exactly that. Hedging energy (buying in advance) works great in a rising market, but does limit the fall back in a falling market. Also, the OFGEM price cap partly looks at previous prices, not just expected future prices and as we’ve come through a period of high wholesale prices, prices are high this time round.
Also difficult to say for certain what will happen, a fall today may keen an increase tomorrow, it’s very volatile at the moment with intra day swings of c.10-15% at times (context, pre 2021 swings of this amount were unheard of)
Suppliers going bust, changes to standing charges, green levies etc also are all part of the mix and add onto bills outside of wholesale costs. Quite a good description/graph half way down the page here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58090533
Ps definitely not an expert, but maybe not quite a lay-person! And also believe the more we know the better informed we can be, especially for something that’s such an integral part of our lives (and finances…)
I think, think it's because they buy their energy in advance so have paid crazy high rates. They are also swallowing up the cost of various energy suppliers going bust, again, I think. @C4r1s is the expert on this.