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Going for variable right now feels like a totally asymmetric bet
I agree with this. It’s like betting the government will step in and sort out gas and electric vs. fixing back in Jan this year. Which I did. What a dickhead.
Faced with preventing some home owners getting fucked vs. Crushing dangerous inflation they will choose to crush inflation as its fucking dangerous right now and the effect of it getting out of control is deadly.
Higher rates also benefit some - typically the prudent middle who decide elections.
Going for variable right now feels like a totally asymmetric bet (the wrong way) to me. You can still fix for five years at around 3%, which is an awesome deal by historical standards. I fixed at 3.5% back in 2014 and I thought that was great then. Saving 100 bps with the potential for that to grow to 200 bps if recent history repeats itself doesn't seem worth it.
To be frank, if rates go back down again you'll make so much cash on the property appreciating that you shouldn't even care. Or take out cheap additional borrowing to spunk on something.