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If China mounted a huge invasion of Taiwan next year, I think Biden and the Taiwanese people would accept it, rather than fight. If they do fight, they'll reckon that China will win in the end, and then rule very harshly, 're-educating' the people who dared to resist.
I'm sorry, but this is utter tosh. China is in no position currently to mount a successful sea-borne invasion of Taiwan, and it is highly unlikely this would change within the next 12 months. If they attempted it, the Taiwan military would fight tooth and nail to resist, backed by the US military and it would almost certainly fail.
andyp
nick_h.
The Ukraine war gives Xi an opportunity. Could the US and the West really take the economic damage of war with China on top of the current food and energy pricing shocks? If Xi wins his 3rd term, why not invade next year when everyone in the West has endured a terrible winter? We might have no will to save the Taiwanese. Many people will say that it's not so bad for ethnic Chinese in Taiwan to be part of China. Those people will also say that we have no choice but to accept the inevitability of One China. The leadership have nailed their colours to the mast on this issue time and time again, and it's normal for them to use violence to achieve it. Look at Tibet and Hong Kong. And what they've done to the Uighurs. It's not just 're-education' in the camps, it's also a systematic state programme of gang rape to erase Uighur identity. If China mounted a huge invasion of Taiwan next year, I think Biden and the Taiwanese people would accept it, rather than fight. If they do fight, they'll reckon that China will win in the end, and then rule very harshly, 're-educating' the people who dared to resist.