In the news

China can't go to war with the West because who are they gonna sell their carbon wheels / frames to, huh, huh?

I doubt ever, it shows how targeted this is

Reminds me of the old joke - how do you know some one is [anti-monarchy / doesn't have a TV / went to Oxbridge]? They tell you.

Your argument is a bit of a straw man. I don't think anyone would say that "supporting a change in law" is the same as "active or vocal opposition to the rule of law".

Yep, Sunak saying the the Equality Act is “a trojan horse" of "woke nonsense" - I guess cunts gotta cunt, it’s what they do

I do wonder how much of this stuff will happen once they have the Tory member vote. I've no idea whether it is stuff they really believe in or they are just spouting the shit that they think the members want to hear.

Surely only a matter of time

I’d certainly hope that is the case (although it does put out in public the hideous values of Tory Party members) but equally, not least in the era of serial dishonesty, they should be continually asked along the lines “you said this but now say you didn’t mean it. So you admit you lied? Or are you lying now?”.

But, looking at the immediate gaslighting about Truss’ batshit regional civil service pay, I’m living in fantasy land thinking these venal grifters will ever be held to account (and they certainly aren’t via the ballot box which is the usual trite response!)

What would happen if Truss's hypothetical Regional Pay Review bodies found that regional pay was actually too low for the cost of living in most areas?

I wonder if she considered that might be the case (notwithstanding the any lack of integrity in the data used by the proposed review body's of course)?

I think the data showed that so she cancelled the policy.

Taiwan, well TSMC specifically, is world leading in the production of computer chips, and this matters enormously to the US, which is where most of the leading semiconductor companies are based.

The US Government is determined to ensure that China doesn't succeed in it's attempt to become a genuine rival to the US in semiconductor terms, so will support Taiwan militarily if required.

Not me, I’m a staunch patriot. God save are queen!

Taiwan not part of NATO, what stopping them pulling a Putin?

Partly the sea. They can't send 100,00o troops to walk across the border. If they tried parachute drops and shore landings from ships, they'd lose a lot of ships to Taiwan's defences and huge numbers of their troops would die. If the US defended Taiwan they'd lose a lot more. Plus they'd have a mahoosive trade war with the US and the West,and their economy is fragile right now. They had quite a bad property crash. About the only good thing for them is exports. If Xi wrecked their economy he might not win the third term he wants at the congress later this year.

But they could do it, if they accept lots of casualties and are prepared to gamble that a trade war would harm the West more than them. In the past their leaders have been more willing than ours to inflict suffering on their own people. They know we are scared of this ruthlessness. Xi might think that if he sent two or three hundred thousand motivated troops who are prepared to die, the US and Taiwan would prefer not to fight at all, and accept a negotiated settlement rather than another global catastrophe. Maybe he'll get his third term and invade afterwards.

I'll stop now, I'm depressing myself.

The Taiwan Relations Act requires the US to maintain capacity to help Taiwan’s defence. The wording is slightly vague to give the government room to manoeuvre in its implementation, but historically it’s been accepted that the US would likely go to war to defend Taiwan. IMO it’s probable the Biden admin would go all the way to help Taiwan stay relatively independent, because a future conflict with China would be all but assured and losing Taiwan would put the US at an irredeemable disadvantage. If the Chinese agree, they would only shoot their shot if they calculated they’d win (rational actor), or if internal political pressures, hubris at the top, or fear-induced exaggerated reaction to a foreign action led them to act without being fully ready (irrational actor).

For what comfort it’s worth, China doesn’t currently appear to have the naval strength or amphibious capabilities to invade Taiwan successfully, let alone keep it. They would need to draft in civilian ships with large displacement for transport and amphibious ops, and then conduct large scale training with those ships. Fortunately, since those ships travel around the world, it’s pretty certain that they’re all known, registered, and even locatable online. In our satellite age, it’s pretty much impossible for China to have a secret fleet. There are other indicators that I vaguely recall posting here that would suggest China is readying an invasion: amassing materiel and medical supplies (blood especially), large-scale amphibious assault exercises (incl. nuclear response), movement of troops (requiring convoys and civilian trains), electronic attacks vs. Taiwanese infrastructure and regional US assets… As far as I’m aware, that’s not happening now. With Ukraine, these movements took months to arrange, and were clearly seen around the world.

That said, deception and cleverness are core tenets of Chinese military doctrine, and they control their information flows pretty well, so having a devil’s advocate ‘what if’ plan isn’t a bad idea.

Additionally- the Taiwanese defence forces are no pushovers. They’re a modern force, highly trained and motivated, well supplied, with generational knowledge of the terrain, and they’ve been planning for that one major scenario for decades. Quite like Ukraine’s forces, but Ukraine doesn’t have a sea around it.

it’s probable the Biden admin would go all the way to help Taiwan stay relatively independent

The Ukraine war gives Xi an opportunity. Could the US and the West really take the economic damage of war with China on top of the current food and energy pricing shocks? If Xi wins his 3rd term, why not invade next year when everyone in the West has endured a terrible winter? We might have no will to save the Taiwanese. Many people will say that it's not so bad for ethnic Chinese in Taiwan to be part of China. Those people will also say that we have no choice but to accept the inevitability of One China. The leadership have nailed their colours to the mast on this issue time and time again, and it's normal for them to use violence to achieve it. Look at Tibet and Hong Kong. And what they've done to the Uighurs. It's not just 're-education' in the camps, it's also a systematic state programme of gang rape to erase Uighur identity. If China mounted a huge invasion of Taiwan next year, I think Biden and the Taiwanese people would accept it, rather than fight. If they do fight, they'll reckon that China will win in the end, and then rule very harshly, 're-educating' the people who dared to resist.

If China mounted a huge invasion of Taiwan next year, I think Biden and the Taiwanese people would accept it, rather than fight. If they do fight, they'll reckon that China will win in the end, and then rule very harshly, 're-educating' the people who dared to resist.

I'm sorry, but this is utter tosh. China is in no position currently to mount a successful sea-borne invasion of Taiwan, and it is highly unlikely this would change within the next 12 months. If they attempted it, the Taiwan military would fight tooth and nail to resist, backed by the US military and it would almost certainly fail.

Fair enough. I hope you're right. I'm no expert. I just worry, and have a vivid imagination.

China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. The main opposition party in Taiwan, the KMT, is a pro-china party and 'favors Taiwan’s eventual unification with China'.

Admittedly they have been out of power since 2016, but China has a clear path to reunification that doesn't require war.

China has a clear path to reunification that doesn't require war

That’s my bet. China’s growing domestically and internationally, US/NATO are stalling, time is on their side in the short and medium term, if they can keep their economy afloat and avoid internal fractures.

If the threat of war and the fear of China's military is responsible for some Taiwanese being pro unification, I wouldn't say that's a peaceful solution. It will be annexation, followed by Hong Kong-style stripping away of Taiwan's freedom of expression, democracy and human rights.

I'm no expert either, but have work colleagues in Taiwan and we've talked about this over beers before. This took my interest so I've read a bit on the subject, and China doesn't have the capability to invade Taiwan. This article is a decent starting point:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/reality-check/reality-check-10-china-will-not-invade-taiwan/

Since 2016 one important change has happened, Hong Kong. China and the pro-Chinese KMT were holding up the success of one country two systems in HK as a model they could use in Taiwan. That model has lost a lot of appeal.

Taiwan has had a lot of immigration lately, people from HK fleeing Chinese authoritarianism.

a peaceful solution

Oh I wouldn’t expect it would be peaceful, as it has been very clear that (the appearance of) civil orderliness is of the utmost important to the government. I do think a political takeover and subsequent crackdown stands a better chance of avoiding a war with the US and NATO, and I think that is CCP’s preferred option.

Some random thoughts in response to different people...

China is in no position currently to mount a successful sea-borne invasion of Taiwan, and it is highly unlikely this would change within the next 12 months. If they attempted it, the Taiwan military would fight tooth and nail to resist, backed by the US military and it would almost certainly fail.

This is true, the mainland armed forces are very big but they are not very advanced/experienced/tactical. No one currently serving in the armed forces has ever fought in a war, which I think is quite interesting. And there would be SERIOUS opposition from any parent allowing their one precious son to die in battle (although it would solve one of the many demographic problems...).

Hong Kong

Yep, even the KMT cannot say that they'd like something like Hong Kong in Taiwan! Total shitshow. The KMT doesn't actually want to reunify with the mainland though - it wants to maintain the status quo (rather than "real" independence). TBH I find modern KMT politics hard to get my head around on many levels so I'm not best placed to detail exactly what they want.

If Xi wrecked their economy he might not win the third term he wants at the congress later this year.

The economy is totally fucked, the official figures for Q2 showed 0.5% growth, which means it's almost certainly negative. Xi will win a third term, that's not a problem (everyone else is in jail for "corruption"). In my opinion, what's more of a problem is that Xi (and the CCP) are obsessed with shows of strength especially if these can be dressed up as in opposition to the west (ie. the US). So the "war on covid", yes we won that, and the US lost, so we are the best! It would be INSANE to invade Taiwan (militarily, economically, geopolitically, etc) but that doesn't mean that Xi won't at least consider it very carefully, as it fits the narrative of the CPC (and Xi personally) "saving" all the chinese people and bringing them back into the (horrible, abusive) family.

Taiwan, well TSMC specifically, is world leading in the production of computer chips, and this matters enormously to the US, which is where most of the leading semiconductor companies are based.

Chips are a major, major strength for Taiwan in this situation and if China invaded, the chip factories would be untouched. China cannot produce sufficiently small chips - even SMIC's latest announcement that they're a generation ahead of where was originally thought still puts them YEARS behind Taiwan/Korea) - and they're sanctioned anyway, with no doubt more and more sanctions coming their way.

And in the meantime, China has banned imports of Taiwanese fruit. I'm going to go and get a Taiwanese milk tea at lunch to really stick it to the man (the man being Xi dada).

Bubble tea alliance

Milk Tea Alliance as far as I know?

There's even a flag :)

Article on Taiwan's porcupine defence strategy
https://tnsr.org/2021/12/a-large-number-of-small-things-a-porcupine-strategy-for-taiwan/