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The Taiwan Relations Act requires the US to maintain capacity to help Taiwan’s defence. The wording is slightly vague to give the government room to manoeuvre in its implementation, but historically it’s been accepted that the US would likely go to war to defend Taiwan. IMO it’s probable the Biden admin would go all the way to help Taiwan stay relatively independent, because a future conflict with China would be all but assured and losing Taiwan would put the US at an irredeemable disadvantage. If the Chinese agree, they would only shoot their shot if they calculated they’d win (rational actor), or if internal political pressures, hubris at the top, or fear-induced exaggerated reaction to a foreign action led them to act without being fully ready (irrational actor).
For what comfort it’s worth, China doesn’t currently appear to have the naval strength or amphibious capabilities to invade Taiwan successfully, let alone keep it. They would need to draft in civilian ships with large displacement for transport and amphibious ops, and then conduct large scale training with those ships. Fortunately, since those ships travel around the world, it’s pretty certain that they’re all known, registered, and even locatable online. In our satellite age, it’s pretty much impossible for China to have a secret fleet. There are other indicators that I vaguely recall posting here that would suggest China is readying an invasion: amassing materiel and medical supplies (blood especially), large-scale amphibious assault exercises (incl. nuclear response), movement of troops (requiring convoys and civilian trains), electronic attacks vs. Taiwanese infrastructure and regional US assets… As far as I’m aware, that’s not happening now. With Ukraine, these movements took months to arrange, and were clearly seen around the world.
That said, deception and cleverness are core tenets of Chinese military doctrine, and they control their information flows pretty well, so having a devil’s advocate ‘what if’ plan isn’t a bad idea.
Additionally- the Taiwanese defence forces are no pushovers. They’re a modern force, highly trained and motivated, well supplied, with generational knowledge of the terrain, and they’ve been planning for that one major scenario for decades. Quite like Ukraine’s forces, but Ukraine doesn’t have a sea around it.
Muc-ed-off-
it’s probable the Biden admin would go all the way to help Taiwan stay relatively independent
The Ukraine war gives Xi an opportunity. Could the US and the West really take the economic damage of war with China on top of the current food and energy pricing shocks? If Xi wins his 3rd term, why not invade next year when everyone in the West has endured a terrible winter? We might have no will to save the Taiwanese. Many people will say that it's not so bad for ethnic Chinese in Taiwan to be part of China. Those people will also say that we have no choice but to accept the inevitability of One China. The leadership have nailed their colours to the mast on this issue time and time again, and it's normal for them to use violence to achieve it. Look at Tibet and Hong Kong. And what they've done to the Uighurs. It's not just 're-education' in the camps, it's also a systematic state programme of gang rape to erase Uighur identity. If China mounted a huge invasion of Taiwan next year, I think Biden and the Taiwanese people would accept it, rather than fight. If they do fight, they'll reckon that China will win in the end, and then rule very harshly, 're-educating' the people who dared to resist.
nick_h.
Taiwan not part of NATO, what stopping them pulling a Putin?