In the news

Taiwan not part of NATO, what stopping them pulling a Putin?

Partly the sea. They can't send 100,00o troops to walk across the border. If they tried parachute drops and shore landings from ships, they'd lose a lot of ships to Taiwan's defences and huge numbers of their troops would die. If the US defended Taiwan they'd lose a lot more. Plus they'd have a mahoosive trade war with the US and the West,and their economy is fragile right now. They had quite a bad property crash. About the only good thing for them is exports. If Xi wrecked their economy he might not win the third term he wants at the congress later this year.

But they could do it, if they accept lots of casualties and are prepared to gamble that a trade war would harm the West more than them. In the past their leaders have been more willing than ours to inflict suffering on their own people. They know we are scared of this ruthlessness. Xi might think that if he sent two or three hundred thousand motivated troops who are prepared to die, the US and Taiwan would prefer not to fight at all, and accept a negotiated settlement rather than another global catastrophe. Maybe he'll get his third term and invade afterwards.

I'll stop now, I'm depressing myself.