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During the Tour a couple of years ago the GCN guys were talking about this. How basically every single person you see on a bike there, even the one currently getting shot out the back of the peloton was winning races against teenagers when they were 8 and likewise against adults then they were 15.
Sumo-
Vingegaard never won as a kid and was never spotted as a talent until he hit an age where small weight and high output started to matter.
When doing a test on the u23 team they realized his heart was 15% stronger than the average in the group.
His first major accomplishment was when he set the time trial record on Coll de Rates… and then he signed with jumbo visma.
Simba
Basically, if you ain't ripping the legs off local elites and 1st cats on youth/junior gears at 16/17 it doesn't matter how hard you work for the next 5 years, you ain't going World Tour.
(late starters can adjust the timeline accordingly)