Russian invasion of Ukraine

I just saw on Wikipedia that the creator of the Bayraktar drone is married to Erdogan's daughter, so I imagine the manufacturer will do what they are told.

When you pillage a solar farm
https://twitter.com/wammezz/status/1539955224055529479

Except it's still there, so this report was inaccurate.

I see the tweet has been deleted, were the pictures from during construction and post completion then?

Horrifying

"Estimates suggest that the Ukraine war entered the top quartile for total deaths as early as late May. And at a continued pace, the war will hit some 125,000 deaths if it lasts a year, well past the 80th percentile of wars."

This war will be among the deadliest of the last 200 years even if NATO and Russia manage not to slide into direct conflict

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/06/23/ukraine-war-deaths-soldiers-history/

While the statistics are indeed horrifying, the study quoted in the article seems a bit silly to me. Comparing wars where soldiers rode into battle with sabres drawn and wars fought with satellite guided artillery is odd.

How are they supposed to manage in Königsberg without ruzzian vodka?

Can't imagine a single village without a moonshine production point so they should be fine but it's actually an interesting situation - those sanctions apply to export and now everybody here is discussing whether transit through Lithuania counts as export or not.

And while every politic here was silent about it, Russians cried their eyes out, pushed somebody in Germany around and now somebody from the EU already proposed to make an exception for Kaliningrad and people here are going nuts that if we start making exceptions to Russia, it's just a matter of time until Russia makes some pact with Germany to exchange Lithuania for a gas subscription.

Oh wow, a transcript of phone conversation between Macron and Putin just before invasion.
I've got to admit it sounds way more tense than I've imagined. Putin is an absolute lunatic.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/27/vladimir-putin-told-emmanuel-macron-would-rather-play-ice-hockey/

Russia has abandoned Snake Island as a "goodwill gesture" which was the same language used when they were kicked out of Kyiv area.
This gesture coincided with with it being absolutely hammered overnight by UA.

RU also in the same statement commented about it also now being possible to open export for grain now as well due to their 'withdrawal' from Snake Island, which is all an interesting narrative swing.

So.... Belarus?
Definitely not easy to predict what is going come of their (alleged) calling in of reservists.

They’ll need to keep Russian troops in/near Belarus to prevent an uprising. Seems to be significant opposition to conscription and getting involved in open war. When all the men are armed and grouped together to die for Russia there might be a Cheng Shen Wu Guang scenario.

it's just a matter of time until Russia makes some pact with Germany to exchange Lithuania for a gas subscription.

The thing is, it won’t matter. I’m surprised how little Russians know about the history. 1st WW happened exactly for the same reason - political pacts between Austria and other European powers carving Ottoman Empire (with Russia agreeing to everything, abandoning their appetite for Serbian influence in exchange for access to the Mediterranean). However, local people will ignore the high level politics and fight for their self-determination. If Russians thing that Lithuanians or Estonias value peace and their mobile phones more than being part of the Kolchoz, they’re greatly mistaken. The only thing that goes against the Baltic states are fairly low population levels and the fact that all the men of fighting age are already on the Overground from Barking going to work.

Weird that letting another country launch an invasion from your territory is OK but being fired at back is not acceptable
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1543289436028506113

Media is a weapon of war just like any other and is used for the benefit of those who own it.

Could be false flag operations by russians to draw them into the war directly, had been mentioned a while back by U.S/Ukraine intelligence.

It's disgusting how Lukashenko is trying to balance in between staying Putin's puppet and not getting Belarus sanctioned to death by the west.

I won't even question the logic gymnastics behind letting Russia use the land of Belarus and infrastructure to attack Ukraine and then bitching about danger of Ukraine retaliating (as if Ukraine doesn't have problems on the other side of the country).

It also seems like Putin wants Belarus involvement badly but as far as I know Belarus doesn't have a lot of military strength - just loads of policemen to beat their own people when they go protesting.

Now who wouldn’t like to play Ice-hockey. It is easily the most fast paced sport and perfect if you are not the peaceful kind.

Bit glib for this sorry thread mate

If Lukashenko attacks Ukraine he might have a revolt, he doesn’t quite have a firm grip. He says all the right things but avoids any direct action.

Hopefully they’ll stay out of it. Haven’t been following Belarus lately, so I’m just voicing an unfounded idea- all the chat about Belarus joining the fight could be to divert Ukraine (and NATO) resources.

Is Boris' resignation better or worse for Ukraine? UK showed some strong support for Ukraine and wouldn't mince words calling Putin for what he was but what's next?

it changes nothing.
literally just heard a comment on R4 that the U.K has been helping to arm and train Ukraine for years and BJ cannot take any credit for that.

He's been a very strong advocate, I doubt a new leader would reverse the policy of armament, but they may not whip up international efforts in the same way