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I find Frost hard to fathom. He was promoted from Whiskey salesman to chief brexit negotiator, totally failed at that and resigned cos he was so out of his depth.....

If I were him I think I'd pipe down and keep my opinions and analysis to myself

Both were lower than usual turnout, but for his statement in those tweets to be true (we only lost because our voters didn't come out to vote) would (I think) have to assume that everyone who didn't vote, would have voted Tory. Which I doubt.

Isn't he assuming that the entirety of the drop in turnout was ex Tory voters?

It could just as well have been that all the 2019 Tory voters turned out to vent and other voters tended to stay at home.

Or more likely, broadly similar proportions of each party's 2019 voters didn't turnout.