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Silver-fox
I agree it cannot be allowed to happen, but in real terms Russia can win. All Putin has to do is avoid engaging NATO, maintain the internal status quo, and outlast our will to support Ukraine. Longer term, his focus will be on convincing the politicians that this war isn’t worth spending money on anymore, and global conditions are in his favour for that.
People knew the dangers of appeasement prior to Hitler, and it still happened. What will happen if Trump or the Repubs come into power in 2024 and decide to end Lend-Lease, or they leave NATO like Trump threatened when he was POTUS? Would the remaining NATO be willing to shore up the £££ for Ukraine? With current inflation, we’ve all had a pay cut of between 11 - 20%: would we generally be willing to send billions to support a (potentially) losing side next year, or the next? Or would pernicious politicians eventually proclaim that enough is enough and Ukraine should just accept Russia’s terms?
The only way I see this ending well is for Ukraine to make significant advances in the next 8 months, before full winter and a recession whither NATO’s will. It could be in the form of firepower or signed commitments, but they need something big, and neither would be guaranteed down the line.
The Iraq war would put people off a long muddling war. The cost to consumers also won’t be the same. The EU suddenly grew by hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people, while losing purchasing power, and access to cheaper oil/gas, and a significant food source. If right wingers in France, UK, Turkey decide to reduce military support to spend more cash at home, they’ll be playing into Putin’s hand. Sadly, many of them are already in his pocket.
I want to add that I am 100% convinced that this was not (not!) part of Putin’s plan. He’s shown himself for what he is: a cowardly, paranoid little shit who is very good at convincing people that he knows what he’s doing (his pr people help). The entire Ruzzian state is reacting to an existential threat; this is hardly the work of one 4d strategic genius.