That Starmer fella...

https://kellnerpolitics.com/2022/06/15/why-labour-must-win-over-jenny-and-joe-and-how-it-can/

The Tories and Boris Johnson are behind in the polls.. By some way.

Did you read my post and think: "This guy believes the Tories are ahead in the polls, I'd best correct him?" Because you should probably read it again if you did.

But on the polls, Labour is on average 6.3% ahead - against categorically the worst PM in history who's just survived a no-confidence vote, with inflation running at 10%, a cost-of-living crisis, energy price cap removed, Partygate, Carriegate, woeful mishandling of the pandemic needlessly killing tens of thousands of people, billions of pounds of taxpayer money wasted on useless PPE and failed track and trace, etc.

Does 6.3% in the face of all that seem enough to you? Seems a bit precarious to me given the absolute state of the Tories under Johnson. Shouldn't Labour be, and I quote, 20 points ahead?

Lab and LD don’t really look that different do they?

Yeah, I think what Ketsbaia wants to see is a more radical and truly differentiating position.

Again, I'm not sure that's realistic at this point. There's not a huge incentive to roll the dice.

Did you read my post and think: "This guy believes the Tories are ahead in the polls, I'd best correct him?" Because you should probably read it again if you did.

No, I read your post that said that the Tories "are winning at this" and disagreed. If they were winning at their tactics, they wouldn't be going backwards.

Does 6.3% in the face of all that seem enough to you? Seems a bit precarious to me given the absolute state of the Tories under Johnson. Shouldn't Labour be, and I quote, 20 points ahead?

No, its not enough. But I think anybody who thinks its possible for Labour, under different leadership, to be 20 points ahead, is perhaps underestimating how much the political landscape has changed and how much the role of the tabloid media has grown. I actually think it is remarkable that Labour are doing as well as they are considering how much the situation is rigged against them.

But I think anybody who thinks its possible for Labour, under different leadership, to be 20 points ahead, is perhaps underestimating how much the political landscape has changed and how much the role of the tabloid media has grown. I actually think it is remarkable that Labour are doing as well as they are considering how much the situation is rigged against them.

Where was this view five years ago?!?!

Lab and LD don’t really look that different do they?

I think so.

Tories: Labour won't condem the strikes!
Labour: Being permitted to strike is a fundamental right so we won't condem them!
Lib Dem: These strikes are wrong but its the government's responsibility to avoid them happening in the first place.

Where was this view five years ago?!?!

Can you elaborate?

Sorry, this has been the case for fricken ages hasn't it?

No, I read your post that said that the Tories "are winning at this" and disagreed. If they were winning at their tactics, they wouldn't be going backwards.

OK, well to explain it again, they are succeeding in getting Labour to more or less fall in line with Conservative Party orthodoxy. By treating practically every Tory policy as a 'wedge issue' to be avoided, Labour is painting itself into a corner from which it will be unable to escape when the time comes to offer an alternative. Now, that's not going to translate into immediate poll gains for the Tories and won't offset Johnson's dire performance either, but there's another two years before the next GE, by which time I fear if the current Labour tactics continue, there'll be barely a fag paper between the two main parties.

n3il - Where was this view five years ago?!?!

Right?

Sorry, this has been the case for fricken ages hasn't it?

If you mean from a media perspective, things seemed to get worse in the run up to the referendum and has seemed to get even worse from there so you're not wrong.

Travel around the North and ask people for opinions on Jeremy Corbyn...some will tell you that he is a Marxist terrorist sympathiser who partied through lockdowns. Ask about Kier Starmer and they'll say he's a corrupt liberal elite hypocrit lawyer who partied through lockdowns. Ask them to name a Labour policy? You tend to hear "free broadband" and "open borders" mentioned a lot.

Anyway, I'm genuinely not a starmer fan boy. He's bland AF. Its true that he's not taking strong political positions. Its true he's staying quiet on a lot of issues that are important to people. I do however think there is a method to the madness.

Labour is painting itself into a corner from which it will be unable to escape when the time comes to offer an alternative.

I think a dose of realism is needed. Labour probably wouldn't be able to act like a true Labour government for at least 2 if not 3 more general elections, if they win the next one at all. I think its unrealistc to expect that an escape from their current situation is possible for at least ten years. There is no circumstance where Starmer could win an election and deliver true left wing policies and stay in power.

So what are they offering? Because "We're not quite as bad as the Tories and we're not Jeremy Corbyn" probably isn't enough, to be perfectly honest.

The scenario you paint is pretty depressing. It's essentially: "Nothing is going to get better, you just have to accept things aren't going to improve and live with it." But change is possible and, for me, they need to make the case for it. Which is also possible. Look at the way Mick Lynch went on telly yesterday and schooled every single two-bit client journalist who tried to skewer him. Just calmly restating the case and making the Tory attack lines look ridiculous. I want a Labour leader who does that, not one who looks morosely into the distance, sighs heavily and regrets that nothing can be done about the terrible situation we find ourselves in. The kind of leader Starmer said he was going to be before he won and ditched everything he'd campaigned on.

It's probably worth adding I don't know exactly who that is (Clive Lewis, maybe?), but I know for sure it isn't Starmer. Because he's told me as such.

Same as it ever was.

A true-left wing labour will never get into power. It’s about steering near the middle and being less of a cunt than the current mob.

Edit: Whilst having absolute charisma and being able to believe in you. I can’t think of anyone who has that ground-swell movement that drive change to places which feel desperately forgotten and left behind.

The scenario you paint is pretty depressing. It's essentially: "Nothing is going to get better, you just have to accept things aren't going to improve and live with it." But change is possible and, for me, they need to make the case for it. Which is also possible. Look at the way Mick Lynch went on telly yesterday and schooled every single two-bit client journalist who tried to skewer him. Just calmly restating the case and making the Tory attack lines look ridiculous. I want a Labour leader who does that, not one who looks morosely into the distance, sighs heavily and regrets that nothing can be done about the terrible situation we find ourselves in. The kind of leader Starmer said he was going to be before he won and ditched everything he'd campaigned on.

It is utterly depressing and I wish it wasn't true. I'm also not saying that we should just accept the way things are and live with it. All I'm doing is arguing that I think a lot of Labours positions recently have been calculated rather than come from sheer ineptitude.

I also wish we had a Labour leader who could perform as well as Mike Lynch but with policies that would win votes from the Tories. Thats unfortunately not the reality we live in and until there is that sort of leader, its going to be a case of pissing with the cock you've got.

Would Wes Streeting be an improvement? I have no idea how people percieve him.

But neither lab / LD condemn the strikes, both say it is the govt who should be negotiating so as to avoid them. Maybe there is a bit of a difference but as you've described it at least, it sounds like semantics?

Would Wes Streeting be an improvement? I have no idea how people percieve him.

Absolutely not. No way.

I also wish we had a Labour leader who could perform as well as Mike Lynch but with policies that would win votes from the Tories.

Thing is, there were policies that did win votes from the Tories in 2017. They were popular. They inspired people. Labour got 40% of the vote that year which, with current levels of Tory apathy, would probably result in a hung parliament with Labour being the largest party (though not by much). Starmer told everyone that year's manifesto should be the blueprint for Labour's future. And what has he done? He's ditched the lot.

Which gets me to my ultimate point, which is that Labour is going to be attacked anyway, whatever it does and however 'carefully' it tries to steer away from so-called wedge issues. So it might as well be attacked for policies that are popular than for, I dunno, some bullshit the press decides to rake up. Sooner or later it's going to have to take a position on some of the 'wedge' and, when that time comes, if all it has is the same shit with better administration, I'm really not sure how compelling an offer that is.

But neither lab / LD condemn the strikes, both say it is the govt who should be negotiating so as to avoid them. Maybe there is a bit of a difference but as you've described it at least, it sounds like semantics?

I think you're probably right about it being semantics but if you go back and read that Ed Davey piece I linked to again, he does actually focus on the negative impacts of the strikes and how they are unfair on people who depend on public transport to do business....I know its not an outright condemnation but it certainly paints the picture that the Lib Dems think they are dispruptive and if the government were not a pile of shite, avoidable too.

Would Wes Streeting be an improvement? I have no idea how people percieve him.
Absolutely not. No way.

I think he is popular though. And performs well in interviews etc. Is your ‘absolutely not’ just because he’s not on the left of the party?

they are succeeding in getting Labour to more or less fall in line with Conservative Party orthodoxy

They are falling in line with UK voter orthodoxy.

By treating practically every Tory policy as a 'wedge issue' to be avoided...

Practically every issue is a wedge issue to be avoided because wedge issues are the Tory strategy. It's how/why they won over the red wall.

I don’t know, I don’t really see the difference. If you agree that workers have the right to strike and don’t want to curtail that, then the fact it might cause disruption etc. is kind of the point - of course it does, that’s why it can be an effective strategy. Isn’t Labour saying that the strikes are avoidable if govt wasn’t rubbish too? I don’t think the lab position is ‘strikes are great’ - they’re a tool to improve working conditions where something has gone wrong, not an ideal thing to happen for its own sake.

I also wish we had a Labour leader who could perform as well as Mike Lynch

This is lolworthy, but not for the reason I thought it was

Starmer told everyone that year's manifesto should be the blueprint for Labour's future. And what has he done? He's ditched the lot.

Normal people don't care about internal Labour party Twitter stuff like this

In fact that's putting it far too mildly. Internal Labour party arguments between the left and "right" are absolutely toxic to the average voter. Non-stop whinging about what Starmer said in some conference 3 years ago is actively harmful to Labour's electoral chances because it makes Labour look like a bunch of infighting children rather than a government in waiting.

I think he is popular though. And performs well in interviews etc. Is your ‘absolutely not’ just because he’s not on the left of the party?

If you look at Yougov's polling on popularity of politicians, Starmer comes out top for Q1 2022. Unfortunately Wes Streeting is not part of the dataset so we don't know where he'd come.

Johnson is the 8th most popular politician in the country at the moment.

https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/politicians-political-figures/all

This is lolworthy, but not for the reason I thought it was

I was under the impression that he was seen as performing very well in the media over the last few days.