Russian invasion of Ukraine

A war of attrition benefits Putin, unless yet unseen internal resistance breaks his grip on power, or NATO quickly increases its military support.

Ukraine depends on the west, and Western societies, companies and by extension politicians don’t have the stamina to care for a foreign conflict for half a year, let alone multiple years. Ukraine’s outgunned and outmanned, and if Putin gets the west to turn off the firehose of money and kit Ukraine needs to survive, he’ll eventually keep at least the eastern districts, and likely more.

Putin doesn’t have to worry about NATO’s military if he can get the politicians to change tack. A long fight increases the odds that western countries decide/need to spend their money domestically, and there’s no lack of potential major crises incoming. Add the allure of cheap Russian oil to power refrigerators in summer, and gas to heat homes in the winter, and the picture doesn’t look great for Ukraine.

The flip side being Nato plus others (Japan, south Korea etc) see that this conflict dictates what’s going to happen for the next decade or 2, it’s apparent what appeasement and sitting on hands in the past has resulted in so this war cannot be won by Russia, the costs both human and monetary are likely greater further down the line if that’s allowed to happen.

Putin is unlikely to stop expansion of Nato, bringing Ukraine/Georgia into the E.U, supply of arms/training and sanctions. if anything he’s enabled this and more.

as for half a year of conflict? how about 8 years in Iraq?

bringing Ukraine/Georgia into the E.U,

Will the EU ever actually be able to admit them? Is the current application just a show of solidarity or do people think the EU actually let them become full members in the short to medium term?

This sounds about right unfortunately, Putin just needs to not loose for another 6 months and then the pressure really will be on the west when the central heating needs to go back on.

He knows the western public are fickle and democracies are easily manipulated.

Report on Russian grain theft
https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1538928280547512325

YouGov poll of middle east views on the war

https://twitter.com/aronlund/status/1539189531097825280

Now Ruzzia is warning Lithuania over Kaliningrad sanctions. They really do not want to have friends with anybody to the west of them.

Kaliningrad is an interesting situation. Push Putin into a 'bound to fail' Berlin Airlift? Or is that escalating to global conflict level?

Why can’t Putin supply Kalin by sea?

Because I am geographically challenged.

Edit: Got to be less efficient than road/rail transit across Lithuania? Shifting to an entirely seabourne resupply will mean lag time as well?

Yeh that's what I read on Twitter, they can resupply by sea but will take time to get it up and running and will be a period until then which is problematic, think toilet roll and pasta during COVID

The Russian's are milking the Lithuania thing for all it's worth.

It's not an embargo on transit of all goods - only goods sanctioned by the EU (e.g. steel and oil IIRC). Plus not all the sanctions are in place or will be in place before 2023 meaning no affect right now for some/certain goods.

They've just being (or continuing to be) whiny little shits about it.

Exactly this.

It's not like Lithuania is doing anything on it's own- we merely follow the sanctions imposed by the EU.

I was also wondering why we can't just cut the transit completely but apparently there are some international laws that you have to allow it.

Would completely cutting the main supply lines for food and meds etc not constitute a crime against humanity? I don´t know how long it would take to organize relief shipments from St. Petersburg and if it would even be possible to ship food for nearly 1 mill people on short notice to Kaliningrad. Certainly the weak (physically and/or financially) would suffer massively from such a move.

But when you need some concrete, you really need it
https://twitter.com/Ray_net_ua/status/1538583978831233025

I have to say, I find it pretty delicious that Russia is getting pummled with Russian/soviet equipment. I wonder if old Gorbachev ever saw that coming...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1539236651557437441 More kit from Solvenia on the way..

I was also wondering why we can't just cut the transit completely but apparently there are some international laws that you have to allow it.

Are there ones for exporting grain to Africa?.....

What about for illegally invading another sovereign nation?

I know that two wrongs don't make a right, but when you are projecting soft power like economic sanctions with an aim to shortening the invasion through negotiations, it surely makes sense to keep the residents of Kaliningrad in Putin's mind.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1539258381243908096

amazing vid from the head of the state aerospace company, “i love everybody in this world”
so much that i wish to give them an intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile..

Russia says they might “open a corridor” through Poland.
No mention of Polish consent though.

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this war cannot be won by Russia

I agree it cannot be allowed to happen, but in real terms Russia can win. All Putin has to do is avoid engaging NATO, maintain the internal status quo, and outlast our will to support Ukraine. Longer term, his focus will be on convincing the politicians that this war isn’t worth spending money on anymore, and global conditions are in his favour for that.

People knew the dangers of appeasement prior to Hitler, and it still happened. What will happen if Trump or the Repubs come into power in 2024 and decide to end Lend-Lease, or they leave NATO like Trump threatened when he was POTUS? Would the remaining NATO be willing to shore up the £££ for Ukraine? With current inflation, we’ve all had a pay cut of between 11 - 20%: would we generally be willing to send billions to support a (potentially) losing side next year, or the next? Or would pernicious politicians eventually proclaim that enough is enough and Ukraine should just accept Russia’s terms?

The only way I see this ending well is for Ukraine to make significant advances in the next 8 months, before full winter and a recession whither NATO’s will. It could be in the form of firepower or signed commitments, but they need something big, and neither would be guaranteed down the line.

as for half a year of conflict? how about 8 years in Iraq?

The Iraq war would put people off a long muddling war. The cost to consumers also won’t be the same. The EU suddenly grew by hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people, while losing purchasing power, and access to cheaper oil/gas, and a significant food source. If right wingers in France, UK, Turkey decide to reduce military support to spend more cash at home, they’ll be playing into Putin’s hand. Sadly, many of them are already in his pocket.

I want to add that I am 100% convinced that this was not (not!) part of Putin’s plan. He’s shown himself for what he is: a cowardly, paranoid little shit who is very good at convincing people that he knows what he’s doing (his pr people help). The entire Ruzzian state is reacting to an existential threat; this is hardly the work of one 4d strategic genius.

Please excuse Wall of text of above. English isn’t my first language.

A good article from the FT on what Ukraine’s received vs what it wants, and some $ and refugee figures as well. https://www.ft.com/content/3fab0893-cd5e-46b6-9bfe-6b0aff4fcb48

I see Turkey is already starting to shift it's stance on selling drones to Ukraine and now saying it needs to take both sides in to consideration, not sure if that is Russia applying pressure to stop the supply or they will just start supplying both sides

Regarding the "blockade" of Kaliningrad.

The transit through Lithuania is not blocked nor stopped.
Only around 1% of transported goods are not allowed at this moment.

It also was not a spontaneous choice and gradually it will cover more sectors:
from July 10: Alcohol, cement and some other misc. stuff.
from August 10: Coal
from December 5: Oil and some oil related products

So basically it really is nothing but a storm in a teacup yet Russia is milking the situation as hard as it can.

Your analysis is absolutely correct.