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The flip side being Nato plus others (Japan, south Korea etc) see that this conflict dictates what’s going to happen for the next decade or 2, it’s apparent what appeasement and sitting on hands in the past has resulted in so this war cannot be won by Russia, the costs both human and monetary are likely greater further down the line if that’s allowed to happen.
Putin is unlikely to stop expansion of Nato, bringing Ukraine/Georgia into the E.U, supply of arms/training and sanctions. if anything he’s enabled this and more.
as for half a year of conflict? how about 8 years in Iraq?
Mr_Smyth-
this war cannot be won by Russia
I agree it cannot be allowed to happen, but in real terms Russia can win. All Putin has to do is avoid engaging NATO, maintain the internal status quo, and outlast our will to support Ukraine. Longer term, his focus will be on convincing the politicians that this war isn’t worth spending money on anymore, and global conditions are in his favour for that.
People knew the dangers of appeasement prior to Hitler, and it still happened. What will happen if Trump or the Repubs come into power in 2024 and decide to end Lend-Lease, or they leave NATO like Trump threatened when he was POTUS? Would the remaining NATO be willing to shore up the £££ for Ukraine? With current inflation, we’ve all had a pay cut of between 11 - 20%: would we generally be willing to send billions to support a (potentially) losing side next year, or the next? Or would pernicious politicians eventually proclaim that enough is enough and Ukraine should just accept Russia’s terms?
The only way I see this ending well is for Ukraine to make significant advances in the next 8 months, before full winter and a recession whither NATO’s will. It could be in the form of firepower or signed commitments, but they need something big, and neither would be guaranteed down the line.
as for half a year of conflict? how about 8 years in Iraq?
The Iraq war would put people off a long muddling war. The cost to consumers also won’t be the same. The EU suddenly grew by hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people, while losing purchasing power, and access to cheaper oil/gas, and a significant food source. If right wingers in France, UK, Turkey decide to reduce military support to spend more cash at home, they’ll be playing into Putin’s hand. Sadly, many of them are already in his pocket.
I want to add that I am 100% convinced that this was not (not!) part of Putin’s plan. He’s shown himself for what he is: a cowardly, paranoid little shit who is very good at convincing people that he knows what he’s doing (his pr people help). The entire Ruzzian state is reacting to an existential threat; this is hardly the work of one 4d strategic genius.
Muc-ed-off
A war of attrition benefits Putin, unless yet unseen internal resistance breaks his grip on power, or NATO quickly increases its military support.
Ukraine depends on the west, and Western societies, companies and by extension politicians don’t have the stamina to care for a foreign conflict for half a year, let alone multiple years. Ukraine’s outgunned and outmanned, and if Putin gets the west to turn off the firehose of money and kit Ukraine needs to survive, he’ll eventually keep at least the eastern districts, and likely more.
Putin doesn’t have to worry about NATO’s military if he can get the politicians to change tack. A long fight increases the odds that western countries decide/need to spend their money domestically, and there’s no lack of potential major crises incoming. Add the allure of cheap Russian oil to power refrigerators in summer, and gas to heat homes in the winter, and the picture doesn’t look great for Ukraine.