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I think you this right, don't really care if the asylum seekers are left indefinitely in an old army barracks in kent or in rwanda, just want to be able to shout about a wedge issue to drive culture wars and sound bites. They seem to have zero actual policy to drive change, so just run constantly in campaign mode.
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Yep, I think they see it as a win-win situation.
Either they get the deportation flights and the adulation of their supporters or they don't and drive more fervent support because they've been wronged by the system (which is actually their own system, but such nuances are of course irrelevant).
None of it could possibly be their fault.
they always knew they were on very dodgy legal ground and the flights might get pulled. They don't care because they can just blame "lefty lawyers" and stoke the culture war ever higher