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  • I did exactly that here: https://www.lfgss.com/comments/16283312/

    I would probably be happy if I was confident I wouldn't need the cash for 5 years. If everything tanks in the first 3 years or so you know you'll have to tighten your belt a little bit to make up the shortfall. If it tanks in the last year or two before you need it at least you've had a few years of growth and you can always gradually pull some out over the last year to limit possible losses. (Just like you should with a pension.)

    If you might need the money within 5 years then I probably wouldn't bother

  • Great, excellent analysis!
    I don't completely understand the chart: what is the historical probability of negative return after 5 years?

  • Well, you'd have to count the dots! Or I could dig out the script and data later on. But it's something like 80-90% chance of positive return and most of the time if you have a negative return it will be small magnitude

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