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they would rather not compete than be beaten.
Yep. That's why everyone is happy to go on Zwift at 60kg/400W FTP and "win" "races".
"Point 2 is more of a perception than a reality" - well, there are more cars on the road so unless you've got figures on close pass levels, hit and runs and/or values for the % of arsehats behind the wheel I'm going to stick with it being more dangerous, perceived and reality.
There might be something in here but I've already submitted my answers so even if it is proved to be perception only it's too late for at least some of us
https://cyclinguphill.com/cycling-statistics-uk/
hippy-
I'm going to stick with it being more dangerous, perceived and reality
It can be the case that it's more dangerous but that people's perception of the danger has increased out of proportion to the actual increase.
Oddly enough, I actually rode a bicycle on the road the other day, which is unusual for me unless I'm TTing, and I thought the standard of driving was better than expected. There are probably reasons why the reality didn't match my expectations, including but not limited to my driving in London all the time, where driving standards are really poor, but cycling in leafy Berkshire, where maybe people have got a bit more chilled and more willing to share the road. It's horse and MAMIL country, after all, and thick with people whose stress levels are likely to have gone down over the past couple of years since they're WFH and not suffering from existential angst about inflation and possible redundancy.
gbj_tester
Some more than others.
Your point 0 is definitely as old as the hills, but shouldn't affect overall numbers. People in their 20s have always dropped out to concentrate on career and family, but they come back in their 40s and it's a zero sum game
Point 1 is only relevant at the pointy end, as long as everybody else accepts it. I think there has been a real philosophical change in the 21st Century where fewer people are happy to be also-rans - they would rather not compete than be beaten. This is a society wide problem, so it's hard for TTing to solve, yet TTing in itself is capable of addressing it by being one of few sports where it really doesn't ruin your day if somebody is 50% better than you.
Point 2 is more of a perception than a reality, but I get it, especially as many people who rode only for fun have retreated to the turbo cave during 2 years of lock down. Going out in traffic again seems as scary as the first time you did it. TTing is safer than commuting, because we make it so by picking our time and place, but the two things people are rubbish at are statistics and probability. Feels trump maths because homo sapiens doesn't have maths as bundled software, and feels were better than nothing.
Point 3 might explain a temporary bump (or reduced rate of decline) in TT participation in 2020/2021, so you'd need to look at 2015-2019 to see what the base level was without refugees from massed-start racing
Other reasons people give are the gamification of turbo training, which has made it an end in itself. People no longer need actual competitive cycling to motivate their training. Inflation has made people look twice at their hobby spend, particularly when it involves long car journeys. Rationally, petrol going up 60% isn't really a deal breaker for most testers, but it's enough sticker-shock to make them question whether TTing because they've always TTed is a good enough reason to continue.
That's just the people who used to TT and now don't. A decline in recruitment of novices is a whole other set of questions.